原木期货日报-20251121

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weak and has been adjusted downwards. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides certain support from import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 decreased on November 20 compared to November 19, with decreases of - 0.45%, - 0.51%, and - 0.44% respectively. Some basis and spreads showed small changes. Most spot prices remained stable, except for the 4A medium - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by 10 yuan, a - 1.32% decline. The import cost increased slightly by 0.78 yuan, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate also increased slightly [2]. Supply - Monthly port arrivals in October increased by 24.7 million cubic meters compared to September, a 13.99% increase. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8, a 17.39% increase. Weekly major port inventories in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions increased, with increases of 0.68%, 2.04%, and 1.46% respectively [2][3]. Demand - The average daily outbound volume in China decreased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a - 1% decline. In Shandong, it decreased by 3%, while in Jiangsu, it increased by 7% [3]. Forecast of Arrivals - From November 17 - 23, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 3 to 13, a 30% week - on - week increase. The total arrival volume increased by 150,000 cubic meters to about 465,000 cubic meters, a 48% week - on - week increase [3].