Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, European diplomats expressed dissatisfaction with the US - led Russia - Ukraine agreement, but Zelensky didn't strongly oppose it, causing geopolitical concerns to fade and oil prices to plunge. The increase in US non - farm payrolls in September reduced the probability of a Fed rate cut in December, affecting the equity market and indirectly influencing oil prices. The implementation of sanctions on Russia starts today, which provides some support for oil prices, but in the short term, oil prices are expected to operate at a low level. SC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 448 - 458, and long - term investors should wait and see [4]. - The short - term negative impacts are exhausted, geopolitical positive factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - to - long term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Fundamentals: European diplomats' stance on the Russia - Ukraine agreement, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and US non - farm payroll data. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: On November 20, the spot price of Oman crude was $64.42 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $63.78 per barrel. The basis was 34.84 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is positive [4]. - Inventory: The US API crude inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14, while the EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels (expected to decrease by 603,000 barrels). Cushing region's inventory decreased by 69,800 barrels in the week ending November 14. As of November 20, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels, which is positive [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average, which is negative [4]. - Main Position: As of September 23, the main long positions in WTI crude oil increased; as of November 11, the main long positions in Brent crude oil increased, which is positive [4]. 2. Recent News - US sanctions on Russian oil companies may cause nearly 480 million barrels of Russian crude to be stranded at sea, forcing oil tankers to find new destinations. Asian buyers are in a hurry to find alternative supplies, and the freight rate on the Middle - East route has reached a five - year high [6]. - Ukraine expressed opposition to the US proposal on the Russia - Ukraine issue, while Zelensky didn't mention the agreement but called on the US to play a leading role. Russia said it had not received official information about the peace agreement [6]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish Factors: The approaching sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ suspending production increases in the first quarter of next year [7]. - Bearish Factors: The easing of the Middle - East situation, consistent expectations of oil oversupply among institutions, and the possibility of a new meeting and negotiation between the US and Russia [7]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement price of Brent crude dropped from $64.89 to $63.51, a decrease of 2.13%; WTI crude dropped from $60.67 to $59.25, a decrease of 2.34%; SC crude rose from 462.3 to 463.2, an increase of 0.19%; Oman crude rose from $64.51 to $64.75, an increase of 0.37% [8]. - Spot Quotes: The price of UK Brent Dtd rose from $63.56 to $63.64, an increase of 0.13%; WTI rose from $60.74 to $59.44, a decrease of 2.14%; Oman crude rose from $64.70 to $64.98, an increase of 0.43%; Shengli crude rose from $60.45 to $60.90, an increase of 0.74%; Dubai crude rose from $64.73 to $65.04, an increase of 0.48% [10]. - Inventory Trends: The API inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14, and the EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels in the same period [4]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [18]. - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of November 11, the net long position was 164,867, an increase of 12,836 [20].
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