大越期货甲醇早报-20251121

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the methanol industry. Core Viewpoints - Due to lackluster demand and persistent supply pressure, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. Inland, the market will likely remain in a stalemate, while ports may experience a bottom - strong oscillation, waiting for a rebound opportunity. Overall, methanol prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, with MA2601 operating in the range of 1990 - 2055 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The report predicts that methanol prices will be weak and fluctuate this week. MA2601 will operate between 1990 - 2055. The inland market will be in a stalemate, and the port market may be bottom - strong oscillating [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish Factors: Some domestic devices are shut down, Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventories are low, new acetic acid devices are put into production, and northwest CTO plants purchase methanol externally [6]. - Bearish Factors: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the off - season, MTBE operation rate has declined, coal - to - methanol has profit and is actively selling, and some producers' inventories are accumulating [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price: As of November 20, 2025, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2020 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of 4, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The futures closing price is 2016 yuan/ton [5][8]. - Inventory: As of November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 124.39 million tons, a decrease of 3.51 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 4.24 million tons to 72.35 million tons [5]. - Operation Rate: The national weighted average operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all declined [8]. - Profit: Coal - to - methanol profit is - 63 yuan/ton, natural gas - to - methanol profit is - 40 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit is 113 yuan/ton [20]. - Downstream Products: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained stable this week. The production profits of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO have increased, while the production profit of formaldehyde has decreased slightly [30][34][37][42][47]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Devices: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and losses [58]. - Overseas Devices: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low rate. Some devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc., are operating normally, and some devices in Qatar are under maintenance [59]. - Olefin Devices: Some domestic MTO/MTP devices are operating stably, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance or production increase [60].