大越期货沥青期货早报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned output of asphalt from local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week, which will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 34%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.81%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. Asphalt processing losses have increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [8]. - Overall, due to factors such as reduced supply pressure, low demand, and weakened cost support, it is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating in the range of 3034 - 3082 [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: The planned output of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate decreased, production decreased, and the estimated maintenance volume increased, reducing supply pressure [8]. - Demand: The开工率 of various types of asphalt and related products is mostly lower than the historical average, indicating that the overall demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: The asphalt processing profit is negative and increasing, the delayed coking profit is increasing, the profit difference is increasing, and crude oil is weakening, so the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Basis: On November 20, the Shandong spot price was 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 28 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory is decreasing, while the in - factory inventory and port inventory are increasing [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [8]. - Expectation: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating in the range of 3034 - 3082 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators of asphalt contracts, including futures closing prices, basis, inventory, production, and开工率. For example, the 01 contract price is 3058 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.43%; the social inventory is 82.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from January 1 to December 31, 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [22][23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from January 3 to November 21, 2020 - 2025 are presented, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are shown, which is important for understanding the profitability of refining [28][29][30]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are presented, providing a reference for price comparison [32][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from January 2 to December 27, 2020 - 2025 is shown, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [35][36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The historical asphalt profit from January 1 to December 26, 2019 - 2025 is presented, showing the profitability of asphalt production [38][39]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The historical spread trend of coking - asphalt profit from January 1 to December 29, 2020 - 2025 is shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [41][42][43]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from January 1 to December 29, 2020 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the supply situation in the market [44][45]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from January 3 to December 30, 2021 - 2025 is shown, which is important for understanding the supply of raw materials [46][47]. - Production Volume: The historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from January 1, 2019 - 2025 are presented, showing the overall supply capacity [49][50]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The historical price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from January 1 to December 26, 2018 - 2025 are shown, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [53][54][55]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The historical production of local refinery asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the production capacity of local refineries [56][57]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from January 3 to December 27, 2021 - 2025 is shown, indicating the production efficiency of the industry [59][60]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The historical maintenance loss estimation of asphalt from January 1 to December 27, 2018 - 2025 is presented, which is related to the supply adjustment of the industry [61][62]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: The historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from January 2 to December 26, 2019 - 2025 are shown, reflecting the inventory situation in the futures market [64][66][67]. - Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory: The historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from January 3 to December 23, 2022 - 2025 are presented, showing the overall inventory situation [68][69]. - In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: The historical in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from January 1 to December 27, 2018 - 2025 is shown, which is useful for analyzing the inventory turnover [71][72]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: The historical export and import trends of asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [74][75]. - South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: The historical spread trend of South Korean asphalt imports from January 1 to December 26, 2020 - 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing the import cost [78][79]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: The historical production of petroleum coke from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is presented, which is related to the demand for asphalt as a by - product [80][81]. - Apparent Consumption: The historical apparent consumption of asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is shown, reflecting the overall market demand [83][84]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Related Indicators: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [86][87][88]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The historical sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators from 2019 - 2025 are shown, reflecting the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [90][91][93]. - Asphalt开工率 - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率: The historical heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from January 1 to December 25, 2019 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [95][96]. - Asphalt开工率 by Use: The historical开工率 of construction asphalt, modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 is shown, which is related to different application scenarios of asphalt [98][99]. - Downstream开工率: The historical开工率 of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the demand in the downstream market [100][101][103]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025 is provided, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand relationship in the market [105][106].