广发早知道：汇总版-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. However, individual ratings for some sectors are as follows: - Sugar: The rating is "震荡偏弱" (Weak and volatile) [67][68][69] 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market trends of various financial derivatives and commodities, covering financial futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides insights into market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends for each category, and offers corresponding investment suggestions. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Thursday, the A - share market opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3931.05 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined. The basis of the four major stock index futures contracts showed a narrow - range fluctuation in the discount. [2][3] - Key News: The Dutch economic minister announced the suspension of the administrative order against Nexperia. The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed a significant divergence among policymakers on interest rate cuts. [3][4] - Funding Situation: On November 20, the A - share market trading volume decreased by 20 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with a total turnover of 1.71 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 110 billion yuan. [4] - Operation Suggestion: The domestic stock index is relatively resilient. It is recommended to wait for stabilization with reduced volatility. It is advisable to mainly observe, and consider deploying a bull spread of put options in case of a deep decline on a single day. [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: The closing trends of treasury bond futures were divergent. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.21%, while the 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year main contract remained flat. [5] - Funding Situation: The central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 20, with a net injection of 110 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds loosened on Thursday. [5][6] - Key News: The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of urban renewal. [6] - Operation Suggestion: The treasury bond market may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to operate within the range for unilateral strategies. Pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying situation at the end of the month. [6] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Review: The US non - farm payroll data was mixed. Fed officials' cautious attitude dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, causing precious metals to fluctuate in a narrow range. The international gold price basically closed flat at $4076.86 per ounce, and the international silver price fell 1.32% to $50.644 per ounce. [7][8] - Outlook: In the long - term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market. In the short - term, gold is expected to fluctuate between $4000 - $4200, and a strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold options on both sides can be adopted. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term light - position operations. [9][10] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Shipping Index: As of November 17, the SCFIS European line index decreased by 9.78% month - on - month, and the US West route index decreased by 6.87% month - on - month. [11] - Fundamentals: As of November 20, the global container total capacity increased by 7.17% year - on - year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7. [11] - Logic: The futures market corrected, and the main 02 contract is expected to maintain a downward - trending oscillation in the short - term. [11] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot Market: As of November 20, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper increased. The demand side showed signs of recovery, and downstream procurement sentiment improved. [12] - Macro Situation: The US 9 - month non - farm employment increased significantly, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. [12] - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate remained low. The output of electrolytic copper in October decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November. [13] - Demand: The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod increased, while that of recycled copper rod decreased. The downstream demand for copper showed strong resilience. [13] - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased. [14] - Logic: The market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December decreased, and the copper price oscillated weakly. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price. [15] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton. [15] Alumina - Spot Market: On November 20, the spot prices of alumina in various regions showed a slight decline or remained stable. The supply pattern became looser, and the inventory continued to accumulate. [15] - Supply: In October 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased. It is expected that the market will continue to have an oversupply situation in November, and high - cost enterprises may reduce production. [16] - Inventory: As of November 20, the port inventory of alumina decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the total registered quantity of alumina warehouse receipts increased. [16] - Logic: The alumina market is in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term. [17] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2700 - 2900 yuan/ton. [17][18] Aluminum - Spot Market: On November 20, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased slightly, and the market activity and actual transactions increased. [19] - Supply: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may decline slightly in November. [19] - Demand: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided, and the overall demand was affected by high prices and the off - peak season. [19] - Inventory: As of November 20, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory remained unchanged, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased. [20] - Logic: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with a game between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. [21] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton. [21] Other Non - Ferrous Metals - Zinc: The supply reduction expectation provides some support, but the spot trading is average after the price increase. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton. [24][25][27] - Tin: The supply side remains tight, and the tin price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips. [27][31] - Nickel: The market sentiment is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. [31][33][34] - Stainless Steel: The raw materials are under pressure, and the demand is insufficient. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. [34][35][37] - Lithium Carbonate: The market maintains a strong oscillation, and the follow - up fluctuations may increase. It is recommended to mainly observe. [38][41] - Polysilicon: The bullish sentiment fades, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. [42][44] - Industrial Silicon: The bullish sentiment fades, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions on dips. [45][46] Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot Market: The spot market is weakly stable, and the night - session futures are slightly stronger. [47] - Cost and Profit: The cost of coking coal and coke has decreased, and the profit of different steel products varies. [47] - Supply: The iron element production increased year - on - year. The iron water output increased slightly this week, and the five major steel products' output also increased. [47] - Demand: The domestic demand expectation is weak, but the export remains high. The apparent demand has rebounded this week. [48] - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased significantly this week, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. [49] - View: The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see. [49] Iron Ore - Spot and Futures: The spot price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased slightly, and the futures price oscillated. [50] - Demand: The daily average iron water output decreased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate also decreased. [51] - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival decreased. [51] - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory decreased. [51] - View: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see. [52] Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: The coking coal futures continued to decline, and the spot price also showed a downward trend. [53] - Supply: The production capacity utilization rate of some coal mines decreased, and the inventory increased. [54] - Demand: The coke production of coking plants and steel mills decreased slightly, and the iron water output decreased. [54][55] - Inventory: The overall coking coal inventory decreased slightly. [55] - View: The coking coal price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see. [55] Coke - Futures and Spot: The coke futures continued to decline, and the fourth - round price increase has been fully implemented. [56] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants is positive. [56] - Supply: The coke output decreased slightly. [56] - Demand: The iron water output decreased, and the steel mill's profit decreased, suppressing the coke price increase. [57] - Inventory: The overall coke inventory decreased slightly. [57] - View: The coke price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see. [58] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - Spot Market: The domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The rapeseed meal price also decreased, and the trading volume was zero. [59] - Fundamentals: Analysts expect the US soybean export sales to be between 600,000 - 1.6 million tons. The US has exported a large amount of soybeans to China. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress is fast. [60] - Outlook: The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is necessary to pay attention to the dynamics of state - reserved soybeans. [61] Other Agricultural Products - Hogs: The supply pressure remains, and the price has an upper limit. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread. [63][64] - Corn: The market is in a state of long - short game, and the price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range. It is necessary to pay attention to the grain - selling rhythm and traders' mentality. [65][66] - Sugar: The raw sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly. [67][68][69] - Cotton: The US cotton price oscillates at the bottom, and the domestic new cotton harvest is coming to an end. The short - term cotton price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly within a range. [69] - Eggs: The egg price is stable with a slight decline, and the overall pressure is high. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see in the short - term. [71][72] - Oils: The high - frequency export of palm oil is weak, and the price continues to decline. The soybean oil price is also under pressure. [73][74] - Jujubes: The price in the production area is loose, and the market oscillates at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to the acquisition progress and terminal demand. [75][76][77] - Apples: The inventory apples are traded in small quantities, and the demand for high - quality fruits is good. [78] Commodity Futures - Energy Chemicals PX - Spot Market: On November 20, the Asian PX price was relatively strong, but the market trading atmosphere declined. [79] - Profit: The Asian PX price increased, and the PXN was around $261 per ton. [79] - Supply and Demand: The Asian and domestic PX operating rates decreased. The PTA operating rate also decreased. [79][80] - Outlook: The PX supply is still at a relatively high level, and the demand support is weak. The PX price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. [80] PTA - Spot Market: On November 20, the PTA futures oscillated in a range, and the spot market trading atmosphere was average. The spot basis strengthened slightly. [81] - Profit: The PTA spot processing fee and the processing fees of different contracts are positive. [82] - Supply and Demand: Two PTA devices stopped production, and the PTA operating rate decreased. The polyester operating rate increased slightly, but the terminal demand is weakening. [82] - Outlook: The PTA supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to treat the TA as a short - term high - level oscillation and conduct a rolling reverse spread for TA1 - 5. [82] Other Energy Chemicals - Short - Fiber: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position and short the processing fee on rallies. [83] - Bottle Chips: The supply - demand pattern in November remains loose. The PR follows the cost - side fluctuations, and the processing fee fluctuates between 300 - 450 yuan/ton. [84][85] - Ethylene Glycol: The short - term rigid demand provides some support, but the supply is high, and the port inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price of not less than 4100 for EG2601 and conduct a reverse spread for EG1 - 5 on rallies. [86] - Pure Benzene: Affected by gasoline - blending news, the price rebound is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 in the short - term. [87] - Styrene: Affected by gasoline - blending demand, the short - term price is expected to oscillate and repair, but the upward space is limited. [89][90] - LLDPE: The basis weakens, and the trading is weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions around 6800 yuan/ton. [91] - PP: There are many unexpected maintenance situations, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see. [92] - Methanol: The port market is stable, and the trading is active. It is necessary to pay attention to the 05MTO spread in the future. [93] - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pressure remains, and the price is expected to be weak. [94][95] - PVC: The supply - demand contradiction is not improved, and the price is expected to be weak. [96][97] - Soda Ash: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it is recommended to