甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251121

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report Core Views - For methanol, the current situation remains poor, Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, November imports are likely to remain high, the contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve, port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, inventory reduction is difficult, upward price momentum is weak, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it has no impact on profits [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price spreads are volatile, and LD prices are weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. New device pressure in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [4]. - For polypropylene, the upstream two major oil companies and the mid - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral, and markets in Europe and America are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are volatile, and powder production starts are stable.拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to grow or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. - For PVC, the basis of 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Summer maintenance of Northwest devices is seasonal, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal market sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive PVC profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stabilizing, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [4]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From November 14 to November 20, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu, South China, Lunan, Southwest, Hebei, and Northwest spot markets showed certain fluctuations, with daily changes of 0, 12, 5, 7, 0, 5 respectively on November 20 compared to the previous period. CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia prices also had some changes [1]. - Profit Data: Import profit, main contract basis, and MTO profit on the futures market also showed corresponding changes during this period [1]. Polyethylene (PE) - Price Data: From November 14 to November 20, prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, and East China HD showed fluctuations. The daily change of East China LL and East China LD on November 20 was - 25 compared to the previous period [4]. - Inventory and Other Data: The two major oil companies' inventory, import profit, main contract futures price, basis, and warehouse receipts also had certain changes during this period. The two major oil companies' inventory remained at 12017 on November 20, and the basis was - 40 [4]. Polypropylene (PP) - Price Data: From November 14 to November 20, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asian propylene, East China PP, North China PP, and other markets showed fluctuations. The daily changes of Shandong propylene, East China PP, and North China PP on November 20 were - 20, - 15, - 13 respectively compared to the previous period [4]. - Profit and Inventory Data: Export profit, main contract futures price, basis, and the two major oil companies' inventory also had corresponding changes during this period. The basis remained at - 100, and the two major oil companies' inventory was 15733 on November 20 [4]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price Data: From November 14 to November 20, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and various production - method PVC in different regions showed fluctuations. The daily change of the East China price of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 50 on November 20 compared to the previous period [4]. - Profit and Basis Data: Export profit, Northwest and North China comprehensive profits, and the basis of high - end delivery products remained relatively stable during this period, with the basis of high - end delivery products remaining at - 90 [4].