建信期货锌期货日报-20251121

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 2,2380 yuan/ton, down 30 with a decline of 0.13%. The increase in LME zinc inventory and the reduction in domestic social inventory, along with the tight supply of domestic zinc ore and the possible decline in refined zinc production in November, support the zinc price. The market is cautious before the release of US non - farm payroll data [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - Futures Market: The main contract of SHFE zinc (2512) closed at 22,380 yuan/ton, down 30 (-0.13%). The 2601 contract closed at 22,385 yuan/ton, down 30 (-0.13%); the 2602 contract closed at 22,405 yuan/ton, down 25 (-0.11%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract changed, with the open interest of 2512 decreasing by 5,690 and that of 2601 increasing by 1,982 [7]. - Inventory: LME zinc inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 46,075 tons, with a cumulative delivery of 12,250 tons since November. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 0.39 million tons to 15.27 million tons [7]. - Supply and Price Support: Due to the reduction of domestic northern mines and the concentrated release of smelters' winter - stockpiling demand, the supply of domestic zinc ore is tight, and the processing fee continues to decline. SMM estimates that the refined zinc production in November may decline slightly, which supports the zinc price [7]. - Macro - factor: The Fed's October meeting minutes showed internal differences, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December decreased to 32.7%. The market is cautious before the release of September non - farm payroll data [7]. 2. Industry News - Price Range: On November 20, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,500 - 22,585 yuan/ton, 1 zinc was 22,430 - 22,515 yuan/ton. The prices in different regions such as Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong also had their own ranges and premium/discount situations [8]. - Premium and Discount: In different markets, the premium or discount of zinc prices to the SMM average price, futures contracts, and Shanghai spot prices varied. For example, in Ningbo, the mainstream brand 0 zinc had a premium to the 2512 contract, and in Tianjin, different brands had different premiums or discounts to the 2512 contract [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes charts such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of CCBI Futures [10][12]