广发期货《有色》日报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November 2025 saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the demand will further decrease, and the pressure to accumulate inventory will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can be gradually closed at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is mainly stable, the bullish sentiment has subsided, and the futures price has fallen. The component price is gradually rising slowly. The market is currently in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short - term, the polysilicon production is still relatively high under the background of the decline in downstream production schedules. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and attention should be paid to the support of the spot price, the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand orders, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of November contracts [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The market maintains a supply - demand balance, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The northern spot market is showing signs of bottoming out, while the southern market continues to decline. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price is adjusted downward after breaking through 22,000 yuan/ton. The market shows a characteristic of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. In the short term, the price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to downstream start - up rates, inventory changes, and overseas policies [3][4]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee continues to be low. The demand in the South China region shows certain resilience, while the demand in the East China region is still sluggish. Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained, and previous long positions can be held. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals of zinc have changed little, and the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated. The supply is abundant, but the subsequent supply pressure may be limited due to the compression of smelting profits. The demand has not exceeded expectations, and the inventory of finished products in the primary processing industries has been accumulating. The LME inventory has started to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze has eased. The zinc ingot export window has been opened, which may boost the domestic zinc price. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and a significant upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand [9]. Copper - The copper price fluctuated weakly. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has decreased. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the downstream's psychological price ceiling for copper has gradually increased. The terminal demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures fluctuated at a low level, and the market sentiment was still weak. Macro - level factors have put pressure on the market, and the Indonesian government has restricted new investments in nickel smelters. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and the spot trading of refined nickel is fair. The nickel ore market is waiting and watching, and the nickel iron price is under pressure. In the short term, the price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel futures fluctuated narrowly, and the spot market inventory digestion speed needs to be improved. The macro - drive is insufficient, the nickel ore price is stable, the nickel iron price is under pressure, and the chromium iron market is weakly stable. The supply side still has pressure, and the demand is weak. In the short term, the price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures were generally strong. The fundamentals are in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The production has increased, and the downstream demand is optimistic with inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand after November. The price of lithium ore has risen, and the willingness of miners to sell has increased. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions [18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, and the basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [1]. - Fundamental Data: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% in November, with different production trends in different regions. The开工率 also showed different trends, and the production of related downstream products such as organic silicon and polysilicon also changed [1]. - Inventory Changes: The inventory of industrial silicon in different regions and the social inventory and warehouse receipt inventory all changed to varying degrees [1]. Polysilicon - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price fell. The price of components gradually increased [2]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [2]. - Fundamental Data: The monthly and weekly production, import, and export data of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - Price and Spread: The price of aluminum and alumina changed slightly, and the spread and import and export profitability also changed [3][4]. - Fundamental Data: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and the import and export volume of electrolytic aluminum also changed. The开工率 of different aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of tin was stable, and the LME 0 - 3 spread increased significantly [6]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [6]. - Fundamental Data: The import of tin ore decreased in September, and the production of refined tin increased in October. The开工率 of refined tin production also increased significantly [6]. - Inventory Changes: The inventory of tin in different regions and the social inventory all changed to varying degrees [7]. Zinc - Price and Spread: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the import and export profitability and monthly spread changed [9]. - Fundamental Data: The production of refined zinc increased in October, the import decreased, and the export increased. The开工率 of different zinc processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of zinc in different regions changed [9]. Copper - Price and Basis: The price of copper increased slightly, and the basis, import and export profitability, and monthly spread changed [10]. - Fundamental Data: The production and import of electrolytic copper decreased in October. The开工率 of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of copper in different regions changed [10]. Nickel - Price and Basis: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the import and export profitability and monthly spread changed [12]. - Fundamental Data: The production of refined nickel increased slightly in October, and the import increased significantly. The inventory of nickel in different regions changed [12]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the basis and monthly spread changed [16]. - Fundamental Data: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly in October, the import increased, and the export decreased. The inventory of stainless steel in different regions changed [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the basis and monthly spread changed [18]. - Fundamental Data: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The capacity and开工率 also changed [18].