大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251121

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The US cancelled some restrictions on Chinese goods and suspended the 301 investigation on China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year. OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from supply - demand imbalance to oversupply in November 12, causing oil prices to fall. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but it starts to decline in some areas, and the demand for other films is mainly based on rigid needs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 6860 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. Basis - The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is 47, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4]. Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), which is bearish [4]. Market Chart - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. Main Position - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals are in oversupply, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues but starts to decline in some areas, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices; the Sino - US talks have reached a phased easing [5]. - Bearish factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year; there will be many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The peak season for plastic weaving is approaching the end, while the demand for pipes is picking up. The current spot price of PP delivery product is 6420 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. Basis - The basis of PP 2601 contract is - 14, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), which is neutral [6]. Market Chart - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. Main Position - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals are in oversupply, the peak season for plastic weaving is approaching the end, and the demand for pipes is picking up, with a moderately high industrial inventory [6]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices; the Sino - US talks have reached a phased easing [7]. - Bearish factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year; there will be many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. Group 4: Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 6860 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6835 (2), etc. [8] - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6420 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6400 (-34), etc. [8] Inventory Data - LLDPE: The warehouse receipt is 12017 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), etc. [8] - PP: The warehouse receipt is 15733 (-29), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), etc. [8] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the capacity in 2018 was 1869.5, and it increased to 4319.5 in 2025E with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene have also changed. For example, the capacity in 2018 was 2245.5, and it is expected to reach 4906 in 2025E with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].