大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 97,280 - 100,680. The market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment swings triggered by news. The main logic is the tight supply - demand balance and the emotional impact of news. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply from ore and salt lake sources with limited decline [8][9][11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - Supply - side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in October 2025 was 22,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a 22.73% month - on - month increase [7][8]. - Demand - side: Last week, the inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium sample enterprises was 104,738 tons, a 0.92% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,211 tons, a 1.74% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [7][8]. - Cost - side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased day - on - day, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 91,481 yuan/ton, a 2.24% day - on - week increase, with a production loss of 1,451 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 97,058 yuan/ton, a 3.06% day - on - week increase, with a production loss of 9,277 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins [8][10]. - Market sentiment: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish trend. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish trend [8][10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Prices: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different changes. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased from 1,086 to 1,117 dollars/ton, a 2.85% increase; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 88,900 to 91,300 yuan/ton, a 2.70% increase [16]. - Supply - side data: The monthly production of lithium carbonate from various sources, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake, showed different growth rates. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene increased by 5.73% [19]. - Demand - side data: The monthly production and export of phosphoric acid iron lithium and other products also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron lithium increased by 10.54% [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Prices and production: The prices of lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, showed an upward trend. The production of lithium ore from different sources also increased to varying degrees. For example, the production of lithium mica increased by 9.84% [26]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [28][30]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and import: The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake, and the import volume from different countries, such as Chile and Argentina, showed different trends. For example, the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile showed a certain change [32][34]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and export: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources, such as smelting and causticizing, and the export volume showed different trends. For example, the export volume of lithium hydroxide showed a certain change [39]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and profit of different raw materials: The cost and profit of producing lithium compounds from different raw materials, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials, showed different trends. For example, the production profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 20.36% [44][47]. - Profit of different processes: The profit of different processes, such as lithium carbonate purification and lithium hydroxide carbonation, also showed different trends [47][50]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate in different sectors, such as smelters, downstream enterprises, and others, showed different trends. The total inventory decreased by 2.80% week - on - week [10][52]. - Lithium hydroxide inventory: The inventory of lithium hydroxide in different sectors also showed different trends [52]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Prices and production: The prices of lithium batteries showed different trends, and the monthly production of battery cells and the monthly loading volume of power batteries also changed. For example, the monthly loading volume of power batteries increased by 21.60% [56]. - Inventory and bidding: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the bidding situation of energy storage projects also showed different trends [60]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Prices and production: The prices of ternary precursors showed different trends, and the monthly production of ternary precursors from different series, such as 523, 622, and 811, also changed [63]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [66]. 3.10 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - Prices and production: The prices of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium showed different trends, and the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron lithium increased by 6.35% [73][76]. - Inventory: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium showed a certain trend [78]. 3.11 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - Production, sales, and penetration rate: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends. For example, the production of new energy vehicles increased, and the sales penetration rate also showed a certain change [81][82].