工业硅期货早报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial Silicon: The supply side has a slight reduction in production scheduling, around the historical average. Demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8970 - 9180 for the 2601 contract [3][6]. - Polysilicon: The short - term production scheduling on the supply side is reduced, with a mid - term recovery expected. The demand side shows a continuous decline in silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production, indicating a continuous decline in overall demand. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51620 - 53280 for the 2601 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, organic silicon is in a loss state with a 72.18% comprehensive utilization rate, and the aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [5]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - Basis: On November 20, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 177,800 tons, a 3.01% increase; the main port inventory is 127,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 27,100 tons, a 1.11% increase from the previous week. The predicted production scheduling for November is 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory increased by 5.13%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On November 20, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 150 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 271,000 tons, a 1.49% increase from the previous week, at a low level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, changing from long to short [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of most contracts decreased, with the 01 contract dropping 3.35% to 9,075 yuan/ton [15]. - The price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton [15]. - The social inventory decreased by 1.09% to 546,000 tons, and the sample enterprise inventory increased by 3.01% to 177,800 tons [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of most contracts decreased, with the 01 contract dropping 3.98% to 52,450 yuan/ton [17]. - The weekly total inventory increased by 1.50% to 271,000 tons [17]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - Industrial Silicon: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance sheets are presented [19][25][26][33][35]. - Polysilicon: The disk price trends, fundamental trends, supply - demand balance sheets, and trends of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented [22][59][62][65]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Trends - Organic Silicon: The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products are presented [41][43][46]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) trends are presented [49][52][54]. - Polysilicon: The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand trends, as well as the trends of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and photovoltaic accessories, are presented [59][65][68][71][74].