2026年香港经济展望：在交汇中重塑平衡

Economic Growth Outlook - Hong Kong's GDP growth is expected to reach approximately 3.5% in 2026, with an average growth rate of around 3% from 2025 to 2029, significantly higher than developed economies like the US and Europe, which are below 2%[1][16]. - In Q3 2025, Hong Kong's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year, with private consumption increasing by 2.1% and fixed capital formation rising by 4.3%[16]. Financial Market Resilience - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority injected liquidity multiple times in 2025 to stabilize the currency, resulting in a significant drop in Hibor rates, indicating a robust liquidity environment[2]. - By November 2025, net inflows from southbound trading exceeded 1.2 trillion RMB, marking a historical high and demonstrating the resilience of Hong Kong's financial system[2]. Trade and Export Recovery - Hong Kong's overall export value fell by 7.8% in 2023 but rebounded to a growth of 8.7% in 2024, with a further increase of 13.4% in the first nine months of 2025[3][16]. - The service trade sector is expanding, particularly in finance, professional services, and high-end logistics, supported by policy initiatives aimed at enhancing high-value service exports[3]. Fiscal Health and Policy Support - The fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected at approximately 67 billion HKD, about 2.0% of GDP, down from 2.7% in 2024, indicating improving fiscal health[18]. - The government plans to attract more businesses to Hong Kong through streamlined approval processes and tax incentives, enhancing the investment climate[19]. Green Finance and Innovation - As of August 2025, the Hong Kong government issued around 240 billion HKD (approximately 31 billion USD) in green bonds, establishing a key pricing benchmark in the market[26]. - The government has allocated 10 billion HKD for new industrial acceleration plans to support advanced manufacturing and innovation[25].