合成橡胶市场周报-20251121

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the synthetic rubber market, covering aspects such as market trends, supply and demand, and trading strategies [6] - The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market remained stagnant this week, with the spot price ranging from 10,000 to 10,800 yuan/ton [6] - The production and trade inventories of butadiene rubber are expected to increase slightly, while the overall demand improvement is limited [6] - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,750 yuan in the short term [6] Group 2: Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract declined this week, with a weekly decrease of 0.57% [10] - As of November 21, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was 30 [17] - As of November 21, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,980 tons, unchanged from last week [20] Group 3: Spot Market - As of November 20, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week [26] - As of November 20, the basis of butadiene rubber was 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [26] Group 4: Upstream Market - As of November 20, the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 573.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 730 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [29] - As of November 21, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 72.53%, a decrease of 0.53% from last week [33] - As of November 21, the butadiene port inventory was 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons from last week [33] Group 5: Industry Situation - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous month [36] - As of November 20, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 72.64%, an increase of 2.72% from last week [36] - As of November 20, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was 284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 352 yuan/ton from last week [39] - As of November 21, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 31,510 tons, an increase of 690 tons from last week [42] - As of November 21, the domestic butadiene rubber manufacturer inventory was 26,630 tons, an increase of 780 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 4,880 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from last week [42] Group 6: Downstream Market - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points month - on - month and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year [45] - In October 2025, China's tire export volume was 653,100 tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 6.79% year - on - year; from January to October, China's cumulative tire export volume was 7,043,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68% [48]