碳酸锂市场周报：多空博弈波动加剧，锂价或将震荡运行-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with positive demand expectations and inventory reduction in the industry. However, due to large market fluctuations, cautious trading is recommended. Traders are advised to engage in light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Performance: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with a change of +4.19% and an amplitude of 16.94%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 91,020 yuan/ton [4]. - Macro - situation: At the 15th High - tech Lithium Battery Annual Conference in 2025, it was mentioned that the prices in the lithium - battery industry chain have stabilized and rebounded this year, and the demand in the power battery and energy - storage markets is strong, indicating a new round of lithium - battery capacity expansion [4]. - Fundamentals: On the raw - material side, driven by the rise in lithium carbonate spot prices, lithium - ore quotes have increased significantly, and mines are more willing to sell. Smelters are increasing their purchases due to capacity - expansion needs, resulting in active raw - material transactions. On the supply side, raw - material costs support the spot price, and smelters are actively participating in hedging due to the rapid rise in the futures market, maintaining a high operating rate and increasing domestic supply. On the demand side, the demand for lithium carbonate remains resilient, but the rapid rise in lithium prices in the short term has suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment, and downstream buyers are more cautious, mainly making purchases based on rigid needs, leading to calm trading in the spot market and increased market fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - As of November 21, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 91,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,660 yuan/ton. The near - far - month spread of lithium carbonate was - 60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,280 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2.2 Spot Price - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7,150 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 1,280 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,490 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Lithium - Spodumene Price - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of lithium - spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,210 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 258 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1167, a week - on - week increase of 0.29% [18]. 3.3.2 Lithium - Mica and Lithium - Aluminum - Phosphate Stone Price - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of lithium - aluminum - phosphate stone was 10,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 590 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 3,928 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 568 yuan/ton [22]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - Imports and Exports: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,880.69 tons, an increase of 4,283.79 tons from September, a growth rate of 21.86% and a year - on - year growth rate of 2.95%. The monthly export volume was 245.912 tons, an increase of 95.1 tons from September, a growth rate of 63.06% and a year - on - year decline of 17.93% [27]. - Production: As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 51,530 tons, an increase of 4,390 tons from September, a growth rate of 9.31% and a year - on - year growth rate of 62.15%. The operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [27]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: As of November 21, 2025, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 175,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 219,900 tons, an increase of 14,350 tons from September, a growth rate of 6.98% and a year - on - year growth rate of 41.32% [30]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 38,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,850 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium - iron - phosphate cathode materials was 266,880 tons, an increase of 20,580 tons from September, a growth rate of 8.36% and a year - on - year growth rate of 45.92%. The operating rate was 64%, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 5% [34]. - Ternary Materials: As of October 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 62,020 tons, a decrease of 1,120 tons from September, a decline rate of 1.77% and a year - on - year growth rate of 15.95%. The operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month decline of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 1%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to rise [39]. - Lithium Manganate: As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,300 tons, an increase of 380 tons from September, a growth rate of 3.83% and a year - on - year decline of 3.65%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 37,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 yuan/ton [44]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 343,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,790 tons, an increase of 710 tons from September, a growth rate of 4.71% and a year - on - year growth rate of 116.01% [47]. 3.4.3 Application Side - New - Energy Vehicle Sales: As of October 2025, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles was 46.75%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 7.15%. The monthly production was 1,772,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 9.59%, and the monthly sales were 1,715,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.92% [50]. - New - Energy Vehicle Exports: As of October 2025, the cumulative export volume of new - energy vehicles was 2.014 million, a year - on - year increase of 90.36% [54]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.32, presenting a reverse - arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short - straddle option strategy [57].