瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20251121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1690 in the short term [7]. - The domestic urea market transactions have adjusted upwards this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong has risen to 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8]. - The resumption of previously overhauled devices has increased domestic urea production. Next week, 2 enterprises' devices are planned to stop, and 3 - 5 stopped enterprises' devices may resume production. The change in production is expected to be limited [8]. - The procurement of Northeast reserve demand has been relatively concentrated recently, but the procurement volume may slow down. The compound fertilizer start - up has increased slightly, and enterprises are gradually producing winter - storage fertilizers. The export demand is gradually increasing with the new quota. The urea enterprise inventory is expected to continue to decline [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1630 - 1690 range in the short term [7]. - Market review: The domestic urea market transactions have adjusted upwards. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong has risen to 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8]. - Market outlook: Production may change slightly. Northeast reserve procurement may slow down, compound fertilizer start - up may increase slightly, export demand is increasing, and enterprise inventory is expected to decline [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures has fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.12% [11]. - Inter - period spread: As of November 21, the UR 1 - 5 spread is - 74 [14]. - Position analysis: No specific summary information provided. - Warehouse receipt trend: As of November 20, there are 7183 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 0 compared to last week [22]. 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price trend: As of November 20, the mainstream price in Shandong is 1640 yuan/ton (+40), and in Jiangsu is 1620 yuan/ton (+30) [28]. - Foreign price trend: As of November 20, the FOB price of urea in China is 400 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15 US dollars/ton compared to last week [31]. - Basis trend: As of November 20, the urea basis is - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton compared to last week [37]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - Coal and natural gas prices: As of November 19, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of November 20, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [41]. 3.5. Industry Situation - Capacity utilization and production: As of November 20, China's urea production is 142.04 tons, an increase of 4.35 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 3.16%. The capacity utilization rate is 83.91%, a decrease of 0.17% compared to the previous period [44]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 10 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.95%. As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 143.72 tons, a decrease of 4.64 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [47]. - Export situation: In October 2025, urea exports were 120.25 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.30%; the average export price was 432.05 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.83% [50]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer and melamine start - up rates: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers this cycle is 34.61%, a month - on - month increase of 4.29 percentage points. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine is 62.20%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points compared to last week [53].