鸡蛋市场周报：产能压力牵制下，期价低位偏弱震荡-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the egg price fluctuated and closed lower. The market is caught between weak reality and strong expectations. The egg futures price maintained a low - level weak oscillation this week and may continue to be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the egg price fluctuated and closed lower. The closing price of the 2601 contract was 3184 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 51 yuan per 500 kilograms compared with the previous week [6] - Market Outlook: The continuous losses of the breeding side have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The egg - laying hen inventory has slightly decreased, and the market sentiment has improved slightly. The low spot price has led to poor replenishment enthusiasm, which is beneficial to the forward price. However, the inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and there has been no excessive culling of old hens. High production capacity still suppresses the market [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: The January contract of egg futures oscillated downward. The position was 217,887 lots, an increase of 8,924 lots compared with last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 42,470, compared with - 17,934 last week, and the net short position increased [12] - Futures Warehouse Receipt: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16] - Spot Price and Basis: The egg spot price was reported at 2896 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 143 yuan per 500 kilograms compared with last week. The basis between the active January contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 288 yuan per ton [22] - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 309 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was generally at a low level in the same period [26] - Related Product Spot Prices: As of November 20, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.94 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.71 yuan per kilogram [32] 3.3 Industrial Chain - Supply - side Indicators: As of September 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was reported at 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The national new - chick index was reported at 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [38] - Culling Indicators: As of September 30, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was reported at 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The national culling age of hens was reported at 507 days [43] - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2278.82 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3000 yuan per ton [47] - Feed Price and Breeding Profit: As of November 14, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.38 yuan per hen. The average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53] - Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Hens: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was reported at 8.08 yuan per kilogram [55] - Egg Monthly Export Volume: In September 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1631.15 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared with the same period last month [61]