沪铅市场周报：新国标增加铅需求，供给增加压制铅价-20251121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract 2601 of Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with the attention range of 16,900 - 17,300 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: As of November 20, the Shanghai lead futures showed a high - level decline this week. The Shanghai lead 2601 contract fell 1.91%. The weak US economic data and the gradual decline in market demand led to the high - level decline [4]. - Market Outlook: On the supply side, primary lead smelters are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range before the improvement of raw material supply. Secondary lead smelters' output is increasing. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery market has changed. The new national standard has opened up the market space for large - capacity lead - acid batteries, but it is difficult to maintain the improvement. From a macro perspective, the recent hawkish remarks of Fed officials have dampened market sentiment. It is expected that the Shanghai lead price will continue to fluctuate within a wide range next week [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price and Ratio: This week, the domestic and foreign futures prices of Shanghai lead declined, and the ratio weakened. As of November 20, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures price was $2,010.5 per ton, and the active contract of Shanghai lead was 17,220 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.57 [6][10]. - Premium and Discount: The domestic futures premium and foreign premium strengthened. As of November 20, 2025, the Chinese futures premium was - 75 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $28.91 per ton [12][14]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Foreign lead inventories increased, domestic inventories decreased, warehouse receipt numbers increased, and overall lead inventories increased. As of November 20, 2025, the total lead inventory was 3.64 tons, a decrease of 0.45 million tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,650 tons, an increase of 42,175 tons. The number of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts was 30,556 tons, an increase of 4,732 tons [31][35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Supply Side - Production: The operating rate of primary lead enterprises increased, and production rose. As of November 13, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 71.37%, an increase of 1.82% from the previous week, and the weekly output was 38,700 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead enterprises remained unchanged, and production increased. As of November 13, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major producing areas was 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; the average capacity utilization rate was 55.99%, a month - on - month decrease of 0% [20][29]. - Import and Export: In September 2025, refined lead exports decreased significantly, and refined lead imports declined. The export volume of refined lead was 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decline of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The import volume of refined lead was 1,507.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 94.69% [37][39]. - Demand Side - Processing Fees: The domestic lead concentrate processing fees and imported ore processing fees remained flat. Currently, the shortage of lead ore is obvious, affecting production. As of November 13, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was 340 yuan per ton, and the average processing fee of imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $90 per thousand tons [41][43]. - Automobile Sales: In October 2025, the overall automobile sales increased. The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the lithium - for - lead process accelerated, leading to a decline in lead demand [45][48]. - Recycling and Prices: The recycling price of waste batteries was stable, the price of lead - antimony alloy decreased, the domestic demand gradually weakened, and lead recycling did not change much. As of November 20, 2025, the average price of waste lead (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy in Shanghai was 19,330 yuan per ton [50][52].