玉米类市场周报：现货市场小幅回暖，玉米期价震荡收高-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner this week. The main 2601 contract closed at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The USDA report is slightly bearish, and the domestic corn market has different situations in different regions. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [8]. - Corn starch futures also closed higher in a narrow - range volatile manner. The main 2601 contract closed at 2,512 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from last week. With sufficient raw material supply, the industry's operating rate is rising, but the demand is good and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Corn - Market Review: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - Market Outlook: The USDA report shows that the US corn production is slightly bearish. In the domestic market, the purchase price in the Northeast is rising due to reduced supply, but the logistics is poor. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the price increase of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [8]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - Market Review: The main 2601 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,512 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from last week [10]. - Market Outlook: With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate is rising, but the demand is good and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 1 - month contract of corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 949,440 lots, an increase of 2,138 lots from last week. The 1 - month contract of corn starch futures also closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 236,928 lots, a decrease of 1,007 lots from last week [16]. 3.2.2. Top Twenty Net Position Changes - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 108,473 this week, compared with - 121,652 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions. The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 43,094 this week, compared with - 53,346 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions [22]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 68,764 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 11,710 lots [28]. 3.2.4. Spot Price and Basis - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,278.82 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 1 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 83 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton, with a slight recovery this week. The basis between the 1 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 88 yuan/ton [33][37]. 3.2.5. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was + 0 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of starch was + 5 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [43]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 1 - month contract of starch and corn was 317 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with last week [52]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,503.67 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,278.82 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 224.85 yuan/ton. In the 46th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton compared with last week [57]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - Supply Side - Inventory at Ports: As of November 14, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 27.3 tons, a decrease of 18.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 35.5 tons, a decrease of 5.70 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 117 tons, an increase of 9.9 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 40 tons, a decrease of 18.20 tons week - on - week [47]. - Selling Progress: As of November 20, the total selling progress of domestic corn was 27%, an increase of 3% from last week and 2% year - on - year [59]. - Monthly Import Volume: In September 2025, China's corn import volume was 56,562.26 tons, a decrease of 256,532.84 tons (81.93%) year - on - year, and an increase of 20,404.55 tons month - on - month [63]. - Feed Enterprise Inventory Days: As of November 20, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.23 days, an increase of 0.62 days from last week, a 2.42% week - on - week increase, and a 9.58% year - on - year decrease [67]. - Demand Side - Livestock Inventory: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million heads (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 280,000 heads (0.7%) year - on - year and 90,000 heads (0.2%) quarter - on - quarter [71]. - Breeding Profit: As of November 14, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 114.81 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 205.64 yuan/head [75]. - Processing Profit: As of November 20, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 28 yuan/ton. As of November 21, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 434 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 549 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 299 yuan/ton [80]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - Supply Side - Enterprise Inventory: As of November 19, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 272.7 tons, a decrease of 0.29% [84]. - Operating Rate and Inventory: From November 13 to 19, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 61.24 tons, a decrease of 1.95 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 31.5 tons, a decrease of 1.34 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 60.89%, a decrease of 2.59% from last week. As of November 19, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 110.9 tons, a decrease of 2.40 tons from last week, a 2.12% weekly decrease, a 1.68% monthly decrease, and a 25.59% year - on - year increase [88]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of November 21, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn was 8.42%, up 0.46% from last week's 7.96%. The implied volatility rebounded this week and was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].