白糖市场周报-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell, with a weekly decline of about 2.12%. The international sugar market is moving towards a looser supply situation, and the raw sugar market lacks positive drivers, with prices remaining low. In the domestic market, the new sugar - crushing season has fully started. As of now, 5 sugar mills in Yunnan and 9 in Guangxi have started crushing, 17 fewer than the same period last year, and the start - up of some sugar mills has been delayed due to rainfall. With the low international raw sugar prices, processing enterprises have high sales profits, and the import of sugar increased significantly in October. The short - term sugar price shows no sign of stopping the decline and is expected to remain weak [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.12% [5]. - Market Outlook: The international sugar market supply is loosening, and the raw sugar price remains low. In the domestic market, the new crushing season has started, but some mills' operations are delayed. The import supply pressure is obvious, and the short - term sugar price is expected to remain weak [5]. - Future Focus: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - ICE US Sugar: The price of the US Sugar March contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.14%. As of September 30, 2025, the non - commercial raw sugar futures net short position was 105,207 lots, a decrease of 20,421 lots from the previous week. Long positions increased by 8,568 lots to 181,603 lots, and short positions decreased by 11,853 lots to 286,810 lots [12]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.12%. The top 20 net positions in the sugar futures were - 65,367 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 7,971 [19][27]. Spot Market - International Raw Sugar: The international raw sugar spot price this week was 14.11 cents per pound, up 0.28 cents per pound from last week [16]. - Domestic Sugar: As of November 21, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,670 - 5,680 yuan per ton [35]. - Imported Sugar Profit: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,728 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 390 yuan per ton, down 46 yuan per ton. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,377 yuan per ton, down 79 yuan per ton; outside the quota was 275 yuan per ton, down 88 yuan per ton [42]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Supply Side - Production: As of the end of October 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season in China was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [47]. - Industrial Inventory: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91% month - on - month, and an increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% year - on - year [50]. - Import Volume: In October 2025, China's sugar import volume was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.62% and a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.12% [54]. Demand Side - Sales Rate: As of the end of October 2025, the sugar mills in the 2024/25 crushing season had all stopped crushing. The total sugar production in this season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [60]. - Related Product Output: In October 2025, China's monthly output of refined sugar was 883,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.1%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 10.962 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [64]. 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - Options Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is shown in the relevant chart, but no specific data is provided [65]. - Stock Market: The chart shows the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry, but no specific data is provided [70].