苹果市场周报-20251121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract decreased with a weekly decline of approximately 1.36%. Shandong and Shanxi apples are still being stored, with ground transactions gradually ending and limited trading of inventory goods. As of November 19, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 7.7316 billion tons, an increase of 89,200 tons from the previous week. The sales market is average, and the substitution effect of citrus fruits should be noted. In the short term, the apple futures price is expected to remain at a high level [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Market Review: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.36% [4][9]. - Market Outlook: Apples in Shandong and Shanxi are still being stored. As of November 19, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory increased by 89,200 tons from the previous week. The sales market is average, and the substitution effect of citrus fruits should be noted. The apple futures price is expected to remain high in the short term [4]. - Future Trading Tips: Focus on fruit prices and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract decreased by about 1.36% this week. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 7,572 lots, and the number of apple futures warrants was 0 [9][15]. - Spot Market: As of November 21, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged red Fuji apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4.0 yuan per catty; the price of 75 and above bagged Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.60 yuan per catty [18]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - Supply Side: As of November 19, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 7.7316 billion tons, an increase of 89,200 tons from the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 54.29%, an increase of 3.02% from the previous week, and that in Shaanxi was 59.10%, a decrease of 0.34% from the previous week [25]. - Demand Side: - As of November 20, the average daily number of early - morning arrivals at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (replaced by 0) [29]. - As of November 14, 2025, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.43 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.12 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 yuan per kilogram [33]. - As of November 14, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 types of fruits was 7.07 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram [37]. - In September 2025, China's fresh apple exports were about 70,800 tons, with an export value of 69,178,601 US dollars and an average export price of 977.40 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 3.51% month - on - month compared with August and decreased by 6.36% year - on - year compared with September 2024. From January to September 2025, China's total fresh apple exports were 600,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.50% [41]. - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week was presented, but specific data was not provided [42]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - The report presented the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable, but no specific analysis was provided [44].