贵金属市场周报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market oscillated within a range this week due to the vacillation of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The delayed September non - farm payroll report failed to offer clear guidance, and market uncertainty remained high. The 12 - month interest - rate cut probability dropped significantly, and the precious metals market will continue to oscillate. In the short term, precious metals lack clear positive factors, and gold prices will mainly move in an oscillatory manner next week. In the long run, due to the increasing US debt pressure and central bank gold purchases, the gold price center may rise further. The suggested attention range for the SHFE gold 2602 contract next week is 900 - 950 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver 2602 contract, it is 11,500 - 12,300 yuan/kilogram [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Performance: Affected by the vacillation of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the precious metals market oscillated within a range this week. The delayed September non - farm payroll report failed to provide clear guidance, and market uncertainty remained high. Although the number of new jobs significantly exceeded market expectations, the downward revision of previous data and the unexpected increase in the unemployment rate (the highest in four years) made the data less impressive. The Fed officials were divided on the interest - rate cut stance, with most supporting maintaining interest rates and some advocating a looser policy. The 12 - month interest - rate cut probability dropped from nearly 70% at the beginning of last week to 30% - 45% this week [8]. - Market Outlook: In the short term, the suppression of interest - rate cut expectations is unfavorable for gold prices. The lack of data guidance and the callback of the US stock market may exacerbate the liquidity risk and the callback of the precious metals market. The neutral - to - hawkish tone of the Fed officials restricts the upward space of gold prices. In the long term, the increasing US debt pressure and central bank gold purchases may push up the gold price center [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price Movement: After a significant increase in the previous period, the precious metals market corrected at a high level this week. As of November 21, 2025, COMEX silver was at $48.77 per ounce, down 3.23% for the week; the SHFE silver 2602 contract was at 11,680 yuan/kilogram, down 5.43% for the week. COMEX gold was at $4,032.9 per ounce, down 1.33% for the week; the SHFE gold 2602 contract was at 926.94 yuan/gram, down 2.75% for the week [9][11]. - ETF Holdings: This week, the net holdings of foreign - market silver ETFs increased, while those of gold ETFs decreased. As of November 20, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1,039.43 tons, a 0.91% decrease from the previous period; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,247 tons, a 0.50% increase from the previous period [12][16]. - COMEX Positions: Due to the US government shutdown, the COMEX position data of precious metals stopped being updated. As of September 23, 2025 (the latest), the total COMEX gold positions were 528,789 contracts, a 2.43% increase from the previous period; the net positions were 266,749 contracts, a 0.13% increase from the previous period. The total COMEX silver positions were 165,805 contracts, a 1.75% increase from the previous period; the net positions were 52,276 contracts, a 1.43% increase from the previous period [17][21]. - Basis: This week, the basis of gold and silver in the Shanghai market weakened. As of November 20, 2025, the gold basis was - 5.46 yuan/gram, and the silver basis was 94 yuan/kilogram [22][24]. - Inventory: This week, the SHFE gold inventory increased, while the silver inventory decreased. As of November 20, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 36,937,024.89 ounces, a 1.61% decrease from the previous period; the SHFE gold inventory was 90,426 kilograms, a 0.90% increase from the previous period. The COMEX silver inventory was 15,247 ounces, a 0.50% increase from the previous period; the SHFE silver inventory was 576,894 kilograms, a 7.40% decrease from the previous period [27][31]. 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Silver Industry - Imports: As of October 2025, the import volumes of silver and silver ore sand decreased. The Chinese silver import volume was 239,777.07 kilograms, a 2.43% decrease from the previous period; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 149,358,822 kilograms, a 6.99% decrease from the previous period [33][37]. - Downstream Demand: Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise. As of October 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4,177,000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.7% [39][42]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The silver supply - demand situation is in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, a 4% year - on - year increase; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, a 22% year - on - year decrease; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total silver demand was 1,164.1 million ounces, a 3% year - on - year decrease. The total silver supply was 1,015.1 million ounces, a 2% year - on - year increase; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease from the previous period [44][48][52]. 3.3.2 Gold Industry - Product Price: This week, the price of gold jewelry decreased. As of November 20, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 929.60 yuan/gram, down 2.71% from the previous period. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu were 1,302 yuan/gram, 1,305 yuan/gram, and 1,273 yuan/gram respectively [54][58]. - Investment Demand: According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly. Central banks net - purchased about 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, with a cumulative purchase of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [60]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - Dollar and Treasury Yields: This week, the US dollar index continued to rebound, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds increased slightly. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread widened week - on - week, and the CBOE gold volatility declined. The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was 2.24%, slightly lower than last week [64][68][72]. - Central Bank Gold Purchases: In the third quarter of 2025, central banks around the world purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% quarter - on - quarter increase, reversing the downward trend at the beginning of the year. The cumulative net gold purchase from the beginning of the year to now was 634 tons, still significantly higher than the level before 2022 [76][78].