建信期货农产品周度报告-20251121

Report Overview - Industry: Agricultural products [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Yulan Lan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] Report's Core View - The overall international vegetable oil market is trending downward due to the uncertainty of US biodiesel policy and the weakness of crude oil futures. The three major oils show differentiated trends: palm oil lacks driving forces and continues to be weakly volatile; rapeseed oil is policy - dominated and is mainly a long - position configuration in the short term; soybean oil fluctuates in the range of 8000 - 8400 yuan. The external market of soybean meal may fluctuate at a high level, and domestic soybean meal will adjust weakly. Egg prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, and the egg futures market may grind the bottom. Cotton prices are in a narrow - range shock, waiting for a direction [8][9][52][53][87][109][111] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Directory Summary Oils - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: Palm oil is weakly volatile and continues to hit new lows due to high production, weak exports, and high domestic inventory. Soybean oil futures rise first and then fall, with supply pressure in the long - term and a possible de - stocking rhythm in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, supported by inventory reduction. The overall international vegetable oil market is under pressure, and different oils have different trends [8][9] - Core Points - Domestic Spot Changes: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil all decreased weekly, and their basis also declined [10] - Domestic Three - major Oils Inventory: As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils decreased weekly, with soybean oil inventory increasing, palm oil inventory increasing, and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [23] - Domestic Oilseeds Supply: As of the end of the 46th week, the soybean oil mill's soybean opening rate increased, and the soybean crushing volume increased. The import rapeseed opening rate was almost stagnant. The 2025/2026 annual soybean and rapeseed arrivals have different changes compared with the previous year [25][31] - Palm Oil Dynamics: From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased, and exports decreased. India's palm oil imports are expected to increase. Malaysia and Indonesia have different outlooks on palm oil prices and production [35][36] - CFTC Positions: The CFTC report is suspended [46] Soybean Meal - Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly. The external market of US soybeans may be in a high - level shock after the USDA report, and domestic soybean meal adjusted weakly. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock and focus on the straddle double - selling strategy for options [51][52][53] - Core Points - Soybean Planting: The USDA November report adjusted the new - season US soybean data, with a decrease in planting and harvest areas, a slight decrease in the expected single - yield, and a decrease in the export item. South American soybean production is expected to remain stable. The sowing progress in different regions varies, and the weather has different impacts [54][55][56] - US Soybean Exports: As of the week of October 2, the US soybean exports in the 25/26 season are lower than last year. The market is concerned about whether China can meet the procurement volume [61] - Domestic Soybean Import and Pressing: The pressing profit of imported soybeans is negative. The opening rate and pressing volume of oil mills may decrease in the future. The soybean import volume in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the port inventory will change [70][71] - Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory: As of November 14, the domestic soybean meal inventory increased. The transaction in October was tepid, and the terminal demand is expected to be positive [76] - Basis and Inter - month Spread: As of November 20, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract increased, and it is expected to operate at a low level in the short term. The 1 - 5 spread decreased, and there is a possibility of an upward trend [82] - Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of November 20, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the quantity is at a relatively high level in the same period [85] Eggs - Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions: The spot egg price stabilized after a decline. The futures market may grind the bottom. It is recommended to focus on the wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options and the reverse spread rolling operation for the spread [87] - Data Summary - Inventory and Replenishment: The current laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period. The replenishment momentum has slowed down. The proportion of different - age egg - laying hens and egg sizes has changed [89][91] - Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit: The egg price, egg - laying hen feed cost, and egg - laying hen chick price have different changes. The breeding profit is negative [96][98] - Culled Hens: The culling volume has increased slightly, the culling age has advanced, and the price is at a low level in the same period [98] - Demand, Inventory, and Pig Price: The egg sales volume is at a low level in the same period, the inventory is relatively high, and the pig price is at a low level in the same period [104] Cotton - Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions: The external market of cotton is weakly volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates in a narrow range. The domestic spot market is cold, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is in a shock adjustment, waiting for a direction [109][110][111] - Core Points - Main Cotton - producing Countries: The USDA November report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation, with an increase in production, consumption, and inventory [112] - US Cotton Exports: As of the week of October 2, the US cotton sales and shipments in the 2025/2026 season have different changes compared with the previous period and the same period last year [119] - Textile Enterprises Operation: As of November 14, the inventory of cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton grey cloth in textile enterprises has different changes, and the load index has also changed [121] - Basis and Inter - month Spread: As of November 21, the basis of the cotton 01 contract decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [130] - CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of September 30, the non - commercial net position of cotton decreased. As of November 20, the domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts decreased [132]