油脂油料产业日报-20251121

Group 1: Report Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures declined under fundamental bearish pressure. SPPOMA data showed a production increase of over 10% from the 1st to the 20th. With concerns about weak exports, palm oil prices dropped significantly, breaking below the 4,100 ringgit support. There is short - term downward pressure towards 4,000 ringgit, with a chance of a brief rebound. If the production growth issue persists, prices may fall to the 3,950 - 3,960 range [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures were weak. Affected by the decline in Malaysian palm oil, prices broke below 8,600 yuan and hit a new low. They are expected to test the 8,500 - yuan support. There is a risk of falling to 8,200 yuan if Malaysian palm oil briefly breaks below 4,000 ringgit, which is also supported by the 250 - week moving average [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil futures declined due to international market trends, including a possible delay in the US reducing biofuel import subsidies, weak Malaysian export data, and optimistic prospects for Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Domestic demand is poor, and supply is sufficient, pressuring the futures market. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil fell to 8,170 yuan, close to the 8,150 - yuan semi - annual moving average. There is a chance of testing this support level [4]. Bean Meal - Dalian bean meal futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. Hedging pressure and weak US soybean prices limited upward movement, while cost support restricted downward space. The short - term range is expected to be between 2,980 - 3,030 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range from 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton [14]. Group 2: Price Data Oil Price Data - Palm oil: Palm oil 01 was at 8,550 yuan/ton (-1.11%), palm oil 05 at 8,668 yuan/ton (-1.19%), palm oil 09 at 8,532 yuan/ton (-1.14%), BMD palm oil at 4,149 ringgit/ton (-0.14%), Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil at 8,600 yuan/ton (-70), and its basis at 24 yuan/ton (+96) [6]. - Soybean oil: Soybean oil 01 was at 8,190 yuan/ton (-0.17%), soybean oil 05 at 7,982 yuan/ton (-0.28%), soybean oil 09 at 7,926 yuan/ton (-0.38%), CBOT soybean oil at 51.07 cents/pound (-0.74%), Shandong first - grade soybean oil at 8,330 yuan/ton (-100), and its basis at 206 yuan/ton (-268) [10]. Oilseed Price Data - Bean meal: Bean meal 01 was at 3,012 (-0.17%), bean meal 05 at 2,803 (-0.28%), bean meal 09 at 2,915 (-0.38%), and CBOT soybeans at 1,123 (0%) [15]. - Rapeseed meal: Rapeseed meal 01 was at 2,431 (+0.79%), rapeseed meal 05 at 2,367 (-0.42%), and rapeseed meal 09 at 2,435 (-0.37%) [15]. Spread Data - Oil spreads: P 1 - 5 was -126 yuan/ton (-36), P 5 - 9 was 142 yuan/ton (-8), P 9 - 1 was -16 yuan/ton (+44), Y - P 01 was -422 yuan/ton (+74), etc. [5]. - Oilseed spreads: M01 - 05 was 209 (+3), RM01 - 05 was 64 (+29), M05 - 09 was -112 (+3), etc. [16][19]