有色周报：碳酸锂-20251123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but increased production, expectations of mine复产, and exchange announcements limit the upside potential. Volatility has significantly increased, and the short - term will continue in a long - short game pattern [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but production increases, mine复产 expectations, and exchange announcements suppress the upside space, with increased volatility and a short - term long - short game pattern [12]. 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2025E, global lithium demand has been growing, with the global effective lithium demand total increasing from 25.4 million tons LCE in 2018 to 142.3 million tons LCE in 2025E. The growth rate (yoy) has fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 50% in 2021. Global lithium supply has also been increasing, with the global effective lithium supply total rising from 30.9 million tons LCE in 2018 to 165.0 million tons LCE in 2025E. The growth rate (yoy) was highest at 45% in 2024. The global effective lithium supply has generally been in a state of surplus, with a surplus of 22.7 million tons LCE in 2025E, accounting for 16% of the total demand [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In 2024 - 2025E, the domestic supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been in a state of imbalance. In November 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate was estimated to be 115,830 tons, and the total demand was 128,725 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 12,895 tons. The import volume has been relatively large, and the export volume has been small. The production of lithium carbonate has also been increasing [16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - In October, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate was 115,895 tons, and the total demand was 124,642 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 8,747 tons. In November, the estimated total supply was 115,830 tons, and the total demand was 128,725 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 12,895 tons [10]. - The weekly output was 22,130 tons (a week - on - week increase of 585 tons), and the expectation of the resumption of production at the Jiangxi Ningde mine has increased, leading to a marginal increase in supply pressure [12]. 3.3.2 Inventory - SMM data shows that the monthly inventory in October was 84,234 physical tons, including 53,291 physical tons of downstream inventory and 30,943 physical tons of smelter inventory. This week's SMM weekly inventory was 118,420 physical tons, including 26,104 physical tons of smelter inventory, 44,436 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 47,880 physical tons of battery and trader inventory [10][75]. - The weekly inventory was 118,420 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2,052 tons), with 14 consecutive weeks of de - stocking and a cumulative reduction of 26,000 tons. The inventory days have dropped below 30 days, and the supply - demand structure remains tight [12]. 3.3.3 Price - On November 21, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.40%, the futures price was 91,020 yuan/ton, and the basis was 1,280 yuan/ton [10][83].