2025-11-24 01:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive sector view on humanoid robots, with a top pick being UBTECH and recommendations to accumulate stocks of Hengli Hydraulic, Leader Drive, and Shuanghuan Drive due to recent stock weakness [1]. Core Insights - Humanoid robot revenues are expected to grow exponentially in 2026, with all five companies visited during the Citi Industrial Tour anticipating at least a doubling of revenues compared to 2025 [1]. - The production ramp-up by Chinese and leading US humanoid robot makers is driving this growth, supported by accelerated supply chain build-up and increased capacity [1]. - Orbbec's humanoid robot revenue is projected to increase from Rmb10 million in 2025 to Rmb100-200 million in 2026, with key customers including UBTECH and AgiBot [2]. - UBTECH is enhancing its data collection capabilities through partnerships with training centers, which is expected to boost future shipments [3]. - Lingyi iTech anticipates humanoid robot orders to reach Rmb1 billion in 2025, with a target to grow revenue to Rmb10 billion by 2030 [4]. - Leader Drive expects its humanoid robot product shipments to at least double in 2026, driven by aggressive production guidance from key customers [5]. - Rongtai is expanding its micro ball screw capacity to support a leading US humanoid robot maker's production ramp-up to 3,000 units per week by Q1 2026 [5]. Summary by Company Orbbec - Revenue growth from Rmb1 million in 2024 to Rmb10 million in 2025, with a potential increase to Rmb100-200 million in 2026 [2]. UBTECH - Main products include Walker S1/S2 for industrial applications, with a forecast of humanoid robot shipments reaching at least 500 in 2025 and 2,000 in 2026 [9]. Lingyi iTech - Aims for humanoid robot revenue of Rmb10 billion by 2030, with significant orders expected in 2025 [4]. Leader Drive - Approximately 20% of revenue in 9M25 came from humanoid robot products, with expectations for significant growth in 2026 [5]. Rongtai - Preparing to support a production increase to 3,000 humanoid robots per week by Q1 2026, with plans to expand capacity to 5,000 per week by the end of 2026 [5].