沪锌期货早报-20251124

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc futures contract ZN2601 will experience a fluctuating decline in the short - term, with the market likely to weaken in the short run [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc plate production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish fundamental situation [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of zinc was 22,530, with a basis of +140, suggesting a bullish signal [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On November 21, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,250 tons to 47,325 tons compared to the previous day, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 771 to 72,897 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai zinc futures showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish trend [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main players held a net short position, with short positions decreasing, which is a bearish sign [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes - On November 21, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts totaled 186,892 lots, with a total trading value of 2.10191965 billion yuan. The open interest was 195,244 lots, a decrease of 4,511 lots [3]. 3.7 Spot Market Quotes - On November 21, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained unchanged, with domestic TC at 2,600 yuan/metal ton and imported comprehensive TC at 90 US dollars/dry ton. The prices of 0 zinc in different regions varied, with prices in Shanghai ranging from 22,480 - 22,580 yuan/ton, in Guangdong from 22,280 - 22,380 yuan/ton, in Tianjin from 22,405 - 22,505 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang from 22,455 - 22,555 yuan/ton [4]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From November 10 to November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 162,000 tons to 159,800 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons compared to November 17 [5]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On November 21, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities all decreased by 40 yuan/ton [12]. 3.10 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On November 21, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters all increased by 10 yuan/ton [15]. 3.11 Refined Zinc Production Statistics - In October 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The production exceeded the planned value by 2.88%, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production for November was 522,300 tons [17]. 3.12 Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc futures contract zn2601 on November 21, the total trading volume of members was 135,976 lots, an increase of 62,090 lots compared to the previous day. The total long position was 69,110 lots, an increase of 883 lots, and the total short position was 64,028 lots, an increase of 2,921 lots [21]. 3.13 Short - term Technical Analysis - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures closed with a negative line, with increasing trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, and the increase in short positions was more significant. Technically, the price was above the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and was operating in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with the long - side strength decreasing and the short - side strength increasing, and the long - and short - side forces were in a stalemate [22].