大越期货尿素早报-20251124

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased due to the influence of Northeast China, and industrial demand is mainly based on demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the urea futures market will fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factor is the improvement in exports, while the negative factors are the domestic oversupply and the launch of new production capacities. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased, industrial demand is based on demand, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. New production capacities have increased supply pressure, and exports have improved, but the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1650 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -4, and the premium/discount ratio is -0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Market: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The futures market of the urea main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with industrial demand based on demand, agricultural demand increasing, and exports improving compared with the previous period, but the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious [4]. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Market: The spot price of the delivery product is 1650 (+20), the Shandong spot price is 1650 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1650 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2847 [6]. - Futures Market: The price of the UR01 contract is 1654 (-11), the price of the UR05 contract is 1728 (-7), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1734 (-5) [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the urea production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other indicators have shown different degrees of change. For example, the production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a capacity growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year [9].