沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251124

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2601, it is expected to oscillate in a low - level range, and investors are advised to sell on rebounds in the medium to long term [2]. - For Stainless Steel 2601, it is under downward pressure and will operate weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures Prices: On November 21, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 114,050 yuan, down 1,330 yuan from the previous day; the LME Nickel was at 14,620, up 165; the Stainless Steel main contract was at 12,290 yuan, up 5 yuan. The Nickel Index on the Wuxi Trading Center was 114,650 yuan, down 650 yuan, and the Cold - Rolled Index was 12,100 yuan, down 30 yuan [11]. - Spot Prices: On November 21, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 116,700 yuan, down 1,500 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 118,700 yuan, down 1,500 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 115,000 yuan, down 1,600 yuan; nickel beans were 116,950 yuan, down 1,600 yuan. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi was 13,300 yuan (unchanged), in Foshan was 13,400 yuan (unchanged), in Hangzhou was 13,250 yuan (up 50 yuan), and in Shanghai was 13,250 yuan (unchanged) [11]. 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 39,795 tons, with futures inventory at 33,785 tons, a decrease of 778 tons and 1,242 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 253,950 tons, down 222 tons; Shanghai Nickel (warehouse receipts) was 33,785 tons, down 294 tons; the total inventory was 287,735 tons, down 516 tons [13][14]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 21, the inventory in Wuxi was 574,000 tons, in Foshan was 353,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 120 tons. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 658,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 64,924 tons, down 416 tons [18][19]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - Nickel Ore: On November 21, the CIF price of laterite nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 57 dollars/wet ton (unchanged), and with Ni0.9% was 29 dollars/wet ton (unchanged). The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11 dollars/ton (unchanged), and to Tianjin Port was 12 dollars/ton (unchanged). - Ferronickel: The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 891 yuan/nickel point, down 3.5 yuan; the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3,200 yuan/ton (unchanged) [21]. 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 12,449 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 12,755 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,046 yuan [23]. 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price was 117,295 yuan/ton [26]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Nickel: Last week, nickel prices dropped significantly below the annual low. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was okay, and some production capacities were cut recently, leading to tight supply of sources such as GEM. The nickel ore price was firm, and the sea freight increased slightly. The 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia was expected to be 3.19 billion tons, with expected ample supply. The ferronickel price continued to decline, breaking below 900. The stainless steel inventory increased slightly, and the demand was still weak. The refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [2]. - Stainless Steel: The spot stainless steel price rose slightly. In the short term, the nickel ore price was firm, the sea freight increased slightly, the ferronickel price declined, and the cost line continued to move down. The stainless steel inventory increased slightly [4]. 3.8 Basis Analysis - Nickel: The spot price was 116,700 yuan, and the basis was 2,650 yuan, which was bullish [2][8]. - Stainless Steel: The average stainless steel price was 13,300 yuan, and the basis was 1,010 yuan, which was bullish [4]. 3.9 Influence Factors Summary - Bullish Factors: The ore price was firm; there was new production capacity coming on - stream, and some production was cut, so short - term output might decline [6]. - Bearish Factors: The domestic output continued to increase significantly year - on - year, there was no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply situation remained unchanged; the inventory remained at a high level; the ferronickel price continued to decline, breaking below 900 [6].