大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251124

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, weakening downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [4]. - The PP market is also expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, general downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [6]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US summit, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, leading to a drop in oil prices. Agricultural film demand has declined, while other film types are mainly driven by rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6840 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 70, with a premium ratio of 1.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.4 million tons (-2.5), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, weakening downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [4]. LLDPE Factors - Bullish Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the China-US summit has achieved a phased easing [5]. - Bearish Factors: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. - Main Logic: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. After the China-US summit, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, leading to a drop in oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6380 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 23, with a premium ratio of 0.4%, indicating a neutral signal [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.4 million tons (-2.6), indicating a neutral signal [6]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, general downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [6]. PP Factors - Bullish Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the China-US summit has achieved a phased easing [7]. - Bearish Factors: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. - Main Logic: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: The table shows the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other data of polyethylene from 2018 to 2025E. The capacity and production have been increasing year by year, while the import dependence has been decreasing [13]. - Polypropylene: The table shows the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other data of polypropylene from 2018 to 2025E. The capacity and production have also been increasing year by year, while the import dependence has been decreasing [15].