PTA、MEG早报-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with an unexpected increase in supply reduction, strong polyester load, and increased export demand due to India's BIS cancellation, the inventory accumulation expectation has reversed, and there may be phased de - stocking. The spot basis may be supported, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to device changes and polyester export demand [5]. - For MEG, there is still long - term inventory accumulation pressure. In the near - term, some supply reduction has led to an improvement. The port inventory has rebounded to around 730,000 tons, and there is increased liquidity of goods. Near the end - of - month delivery, there will be some support for the low - level basis. In the short - term, the price center will operate weakly, and there is continuous upward pressure [6]. Summaries by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the given content 2.每日提示 - PTA: The fundamentals on Friday showed that some mainstream suppliers sold goods. The negotiation and transaction prices in November were around 4,565 - 4,660 at a discount of 60 - 70 to the 01 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 63. The factory inventory was 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract decreased [5]. - MEG: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was sorted at a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session opened lower and was sorted, with less negotiation in the market. The domestic market continued to be weak. The spot mainstream negotiation and transaction were at a premium of 28 - 36 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The foreign - exchange price of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the mainstream negotiation of in - transit cargoes was around 450 - 455 US dollars/ton [6]. 3.今日关注 - PTA: Attention should be paid to device changes and polyester export demand as the supply reduction has increased unexpectedly, and the inventory accumulation expectation has reversed [5]. - MEG: Attention should be paid to the continuous changes in the supply - end as there is still long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the near - term supply reduction has led to an improvement [6]. 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table: It records the supply - demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory. For example, in January 2024, the production capacity was 8,062, the production was 591, and the total supply was 591. The total demand was 572, and the inventory was 238 [9]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table: It records the supply - demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, total supply, consumption, and port inventory. For example, in January 2024, the production was 51, the total supply was 209, the total consumption was 211, and the port inventory was 85 [10]. - Price and Margin Data: It shows the price changes of various products such as spot prices of naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and their corresponding futures prices and margins from November 20 - 21, 2025. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased from 575.5 to 584.5 US dollars/ton, and the PTA processing fee decreased from 439.48 to 30.48 yuan/ton [11]. 5.影响因素总结 - Positive Factors: The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Honggang has been shut down since the beginning of the week, and the 2.2 - million - ton device of Yisheng is gradually shutting down. For MEG, Zhengdaikai has carried out maintenance this week, and Zhongke Refining & Chemical has gradually reduced production. The domestic ethylene glycol load has continued to decline slightly to below 71%, and there is still room for the domestic load to decline [7]. - Negative Factors: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the market rebounds [8].