2025-11-24燃料油早报-20251124

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to a slight recovery in demand for cargoes, the spot premium of marine fuel has reached a new high in more than six weeks. However, the market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil is showing signs of weakness. High - sulfur fuel oil still has support from non - shipping demand and is stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil. It is expected that the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil will further narrow. FU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 2470 - 2520, and LU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 3020 - 3080 [3] - The supply side of the fuel oil market is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral. The bullish factors include Russia's fuel export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises. The bearish factors are that the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of low - sulfur marine fuel oil are considered neutral. A Singapore trader said that December looks good, Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil inventory is still quite sufficient but not extremely high, and there are a large number of unblended oils "stuck" in the region. The basis shows that the spot price of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is at a premium to the futures price. The inventory of Singapore fuel oil increased by 2.57 million barrels to 23.449 million barrels in the week of November 19. The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The high - sulfur main position has more short positions with an increase in shorts, and the low - sulfur main position has more long positions with an increase in longs [3] - The futures prices of the FU and LU main contracts have changed, with the FU main contract rising 1.48% to 2529, and the LU main contract falling 1.20% to 3117. The basis of FU and LU has also decreased significantly, with the FU basis down 64.00% to 10 and the LU basis down 58.79% to 37 [5] - The spot prices of various types of fuel oil have generally declined. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 2.41% to 445.00, and the price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 3.43% to 426.35 [6] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia's fuel export restrictions; cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises. Bearish factors: the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; upstream crude oil is under pressure. The market is driven by the combination of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The fundamentals of low - sulfur marine fuel oil are neutral. The basis shows a bullish signal as the spot is at a premium to the futures. The inventory increase is bearish, the price trend on the chart is bearish, and the main positions of high - sulfur and low - sulfur have different directions, with high - sulfur being bearish and low - sulfur being bullish [3] 3.4 Spread Data - It is expected that the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil will further narrow [3] 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory of Singapore fuel oil has fluctuated in recent months. In the week of November 19, it reached 23.449 million barrels, an increase of 2.57 million barrels [8]