大越期货生猪期货早报-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is in the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. Supply is expected to decrease this week as large farms reduce their slaughter. Demand is also weak as consumer willingness declines after the long holiday. The market may see a double - decline in supply and demand, with short - term pig prices oscillating downward and medium - term prices maintaining a range - bound pattern. The report suggests paying attention to the monthly group farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish signal. However, inventory, market trends, and main positions all indicate a bearish outlook. Overall, it is expected that pig prices will bottom out and return to an oscillatory pattern this week, with the LH2601 contract oscillating between 11,200 and 11,600 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The market may experience a double - decline in supply and demand, with short - term pig prices oscillating downward and medium - term prices maintaining a range - bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the monthly group farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market is affected by the off - season. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the slaughter of large pigs has decreased, resulting in a double - decline in supply and demand. Spot prices are short - term weak but may bottom out and rebound, with medium - term prices maintaining a range - bound pattern [12]. - Pig farming profits have recently expanded their losses, reducing the short - term enthusiasm for large pig slaughter. The double - decline in supply and demand supports short - term pig futures and spot price expectations [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: The domestic pig supply is in the off - season after the long holiday, and there may be limited room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices [13]. - Bearish Factors: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [13]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - side Indicators: - As of September 30, the pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66% [10]. - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [28]. - Demand - side Indicators: The report mentions that after the long holiday, consumer willingness has declined, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. 5. Position Data - The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish signal [10].