大越期货豆粕早报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2980 - 3040. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean trend, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discounts suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. It is likely to maintain a volatile pattern [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The domestic soybean market is affected by the US soybean trend, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans compared to imported ones, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, resulting in a short - term volatile situation [11]. - The short - term soybean meal market is in an interval - oscillation pattern, affected by factors such as the preliminary agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the high - level arrival of imported soybeans, the decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits, and the relatively high inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal M2601: It is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bearish; the inventory situation is bearish; the price on the disk is neutral; the main position is bearish; the short - term is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation pattern [9]. - Soybean A2601: It is expected to oscillate between 4060 and 4160. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is neutral; the inventory situation is bearish; the price on the disk is neutral; the main position is bearish; the short - term is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation pattern [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is strongly oscillating above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level in November. The soybean meal market has returned to an interval - oscillation pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal weakened in November, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal [13]. - The relatively high inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement of Sino - US trade negotiations have caused the short - term soybean meal market to maintain an interval - oscillation pattern [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement of Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean disk; the expected increase in domestic demand for soybeans supports the price expectation [16]. - Bearish factors: The good harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global soybean supply - demand balance: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [33]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. - The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil in different years is provided, including the sowing rate, emergence rate, excellent - good rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvesting rate [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. - The monthly supply - demand report of the USDA in the past six months shows changes in planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume [46]. - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year; the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in November but increased year - on - year overall [47][49]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in the soybean meal market increased, and funds flowed out [9]. - The main short positions in the soybean market increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The futures price of soybean meal oscillated downward, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot discount narrowed slightly [24]. - The soybean input volume of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal output in September increased year - on - year [26][54]. - The low - level procurement and pick - up volume of domestic downstream industries increased [28]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract also fluctuated slightly [30]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the US soybeans, and the disk profit fluctuated slightly [56]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [58]. - The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [60]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly [62]. - The domestic pig - breeding profit decreased slightly [64].