大越期货菜粕早报-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2420 - 2480. It is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical shock consolidation, and the market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season is over, but low inventory supports the market. The contract will maintain range - bound in the short term due to soybean meal influence [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2420 and 2480. The market is neutral in terms of fundamentals, with the price below the 20 - day moving average but trending upwards. The basis is 99, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish. The inventory decreased by 2.78% week - on - week and 20.45% year - on - year, also bullish. The main long positions decreased with capital outflow, but still considered bullish. The contract is expected to return to an oscillating pattern due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues may reduce short - term exports. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, with a 75.8% import deposit. Global rapeseed production is increasing, and the geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From November 13th to 21st, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 3061 to 3106 yuan/ton, and the trading volume from 7.47 to 40.05 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2510 and 2600 yuan/ton, with zero trading volume. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [13]. - From November 13th to 21st, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2412 to 2492 yuan/ton, and the far - month 2605 contract from 2367 to 2429 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was between 2510 and 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - From November 12th to 21st, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0. There was no change from November 12th to 18th, a decrease of 745 on November 19th, no change on November 20th, and a decrease of 2000 on November 21st [17]. - The price of imported rapeseed is affected by tariffs, with no shipping schedule forecast for November. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal is at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume remains zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish has slightly declined, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35].