Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices dropped significantly, breaking through the low point of the year. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was acceptable, and some production capacities were reduced recently. The supply of sources such as GEM was tight. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and shipping costs increased slightly. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, with an expected loose supply. Nickel iron prices continued to decline, breaking through the support of the 900 mark, and the cost - line center of gravity decreased again. Stainless steel inventories increased slightly, with a slight decline in the 300 - series, and the demand performance was still poor. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the surplus pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate in a range of 2,000 points above and below 115,000, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. The main contract of stainless steel is under downward pressure and will operate weakly [9][10]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Nickel Viewpoint: Nickel prices fell sharply this week, breaking through the annual low. Downstream procurement was acceptable, with some production cuts and tight supply from some sources. The nickel ore price was firm, shipping costs rose slightly, and the Indonesian supply was expected to be loose. Nickel iron prices continued to decline, stainless steel demand was weak, refined nickel was in surplus, and new energy vehicles had limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - Operation Strategy: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around 115,000 with a range of 2,000 points, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. The main contract of stainless steel will operate weakly [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes: Red soil nickel ore prices remained stable, while the prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, nickel iron, and 304 stainless steel all decreased [13][14]. - Nickel Ore Market: Nickel ore prices were stable, shipping costs increased by $1 per wet ton. As of November 21, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China decreased by 0.65%. In October 2025, nickel ore imports decreased by 23.41% month - on - month and increased by 10.97% year - on - year. Downstream nickel - iron enterprises had low procurement enthusiasm, and the benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly [17]. - Electrolytic Nickel Market: Nickel prices weakened, and downstream procurement was acceptable. Some production was reduced, and there was a willingness to support prices. In the long - term, the supply and demand would both increase, but the surplus pattern would remain. The substitution of ternary batteries was more obvious, and nickel demand growth slowed down. In October 2025, China's refined nickel production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. Imports decreased significantly month - on - month, and exports decreased slightly. The price of nickel sulfate decreased [22][25][26]. - Nickel Iron Market: Nickel iron prices continued to decline. In October 2025, China's nickel - pig iron production increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. Imports decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The inventory in October was 209,100 physical tons, equivalent to 19,800 nickel tons [41][44][47]. - Stainless Steel Market: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased. In October, stainless steel production was 3.4267 million tons, with a 1.43% increase in the 300 - series. Imports were 124,100 tons, and exports were 358,100 tons. As of November 21, the national inventory increased slightly, and the 300 - series inventory decreased slightly [55][61][67]. - New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales: In October, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October, production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.1% and 32.7%. In October, power and other battery production and sales increased significantly, and the cumulative installed capacity from January to October increased by 42.4% year - on - year [72][75]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price continued to be under pressure, breaking through the previous low, opening up downward space, and moving away from the 20 - day moving average. The high - level position did not reduce, indicating strong short - selling sentiment from the main force. The green column of the MACD indicator began to shrink, and indicators such as KDJ entered the oversold area, with a certain rebound demand [78]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - Nickel Ore: Neutral. The quotation was stable, shipping costs increased, the rainy season was approaching, supply slowed down, and Indonesian supply was loose [81]. - Nickel Iron: Slightly bearish. Nickel iron prices continued to decline, breaking through the 900 mark, and the cost line continued to fall [81]. - Refined Nickel: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, and high inventories were difficult to change [81]. - Stainless Steel: Slightly bearish. Inventories increased slightly, and there was an oversupply [81]. - New Energy: Slightly bearish. Production data was good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continued [81].
大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20251124
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-24 02:45