大越期货沪铝早报-20251124

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market, along with volatile short - term macro sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a neutral state with the spot price at 21370 and a basis of 30, indicating a premium over the futures [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum increased by 8817 tons to 123716 tons last week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, a neutral signal [2]. - The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a bullish bias [2]. - In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry, which is bullish for aluminum prices. With improved macro sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to be strong [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of aluminum is a combination of neutral and bullish factors. The long - term outlook is positive due to carbon neutrality, but short - term factors are complex [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; geopolitical issues between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - Spot Prices: The Shanghai spot middle - price was 70770, down 375; the South China spot price was 70690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt inventory was 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; LME inventory was 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 29728 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 - 2023, China's aluminum market was generally in a state of supply shortage, with shortages ranging from 4.31 million tons to 68.61 million tons. In 2024, it is expected to have a surplus of 15 million tons [21].