大越期货沪铜早报-20251124

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production reduction actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared with the previous month, and the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The copper market is neutral in terms of fundamentals. The spot price is 85,870 with a basis of 210, showing a premium over futures, also neutral. Copper inventories decreased by 2,900 to 155,025 tons on November 21, while SHFE copper inventories increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons compared with last week, remaining neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is moving downward, indicating a bearish signal. The main net position is long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a bullish tendency. Overall, with inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, and the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Copper's fundamentals are neutral due to supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, liberalized scrap copper policy, and a decline in China's manufacturing PMI in October. The basis shows a premium over futures, being neutral. Inventory changes are neutral. The price trend is bearish as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position with decreasing long positions is bullish. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of the trade - war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply - demand balance of 0.11 million tons [20][22] Inventory - On November 21, copper inventories decreased by 2,900 to 155,025 tons, and SHFE copper inventories increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons compared with last week. The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [2][13] Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]