大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 87,700 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 91,020 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.79%. It is expected that next week, the supply side will continue to increase production, the demand side will continue to grow, and costs will remain low. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Supply Side: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 22,130 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 13,344 tons, a 3.41% week-on-week increase; lithium mica production was 2,971 tons, a 1.02% week-on-week increase; salt lake production was 3,635 tons, a 2.25% week-on-week increase; and recycling production was 2,180 tons, a 1.63% week-on-week increase [4]. - Demand Side: In October 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 126,961 physical tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.70%. The predicted demand for next month is 132,001 physical tons, a 3.97% month-on-month increase. In October 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate was 246 physical tons, a 62.91% month-on-month increase, and the predicted export volume for next month is 454 physical tons, an 84.55% month-on-month increase [5]. - Cost Side: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 89,670 yuan/ton, a 1.97% day-on-day decrease, with a production profit of 1,350 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 93,596 yuan/ton, a 3.56% day-on-day decrease, with a production loss of 4,836 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling side was generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production profits and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6]. - Inventory Side: The smelter inventory was 26,104 tons, a 7.66% week-on-week decrease; the downstream inventory was 44,436 tons, an 8.89% week-on-week decrease; other inventories were 47,880 tons, a 10.25% week-on-week increase; and the total inventory was 118,420 tons, a 1.70% week-on-week decrease [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Price and Basis: The report presents the trends of the main lithium carbonate futures contract, including price, basis, and trading volume [12]. - Lithium Ore Supply: It shows the price trends of lithium ore, the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines, the total domestic lithium mica production, the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate, the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore, and the weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore [15]. - Lithium Carbonate Supply: It includes the weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling), as well as the supply - demand balance table [21][27]. - Lithium Hydroxide Supply: It shows the weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide, as well as the supply - demand balance table [29][31]. - Lithium Compound Cost and Profit: It analyzes the cost - profit situations of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the profit situations of lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide processing, and exports [34][36][39]. - Inventory: It presents the warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide [41]. - Lithium Battery Demand: It shows the price trends, production, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries, as well as the cost of battery cells [44][47]. - Ternary Precursor Demand: It includes the price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors [50][53]. - Ternary Material Demand: It shows the price, cost - profit, processing fee, production, export and import volume, and inventory of ternary materials [56][58]. - Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand: It presents the price, cost - profit, production, export volume, and inventory of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium [60][63]. - New Energy Vehicle Demand: It shows the production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles [68][72]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed an upward trend. The report presents the price trends of the LC main contract, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages (ma10, ma5, ma20, ma60, ma120), and predicts that the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment next week [75].