大越期货原油周报-20251124

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated downward. Geopolitical concerns weakened, leading to a significant drop in oil prices in the second half of the week. The short - term oil price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The recommended short - term trading range for oil futures is 435 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Price Movement: New York Mercantile Exchange's main light crude oil futures closed at $57.98 per barrel, down 3.06% for the week; Brent crude oil futures in London closed at $61.89 per barrel, down 3.73% for the week; and Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 446.4 yuan per barrel, down 2.40% for the week [3]. - Positive Factors: At the beginning of the week, the uncertainty of Russian energy supply supported oil prices. Ukraine's drone attack on a Russian oil depot and a ship in the port of Novorossiysk led to a two - day suspension of loading operations. The port exported about 700,000 barrels of Russian oil per day in September and October. The US sanctions on Russian oil and gas also partially boosted oil prices [3]. - Negative Factors: Later in the week, news of a potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict weakened geopolitical concerns and caused oil prices to drop significantly. The number of speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased, while the number of speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures decreased [3]. 3.2 Related News - US Sanctions: The US listed Russian oil giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC on the blacklist. Asian buyers, especially Indian refiners, are scrambling to find alternative supplies. The freight rate for chartering tankers from the Middle East has reached a nearly five - year high. However, Russian oil exports remain stable for now, with about 3.4 million barrels per day of seaborne shipments [4]. - Indian Oil Purchase: Indian Reliance Industries bought 1 million barrels of heavy crude oil from Kuwait Petroleum Company through a tender [5]. - Fed's Policy: The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed a heated debate on whether to cut interest rates in December. After a series of official speeches, the probability of a December interest rate cut expected by traders in the interest rate futures market rose to over 70% [5]. - US - Venezuela Tension: The US ambassador to the United Nations reiterated that the US will take "decisive action" against Venezuela. A US strike group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford arrived in the Caribbean Sea, raising speculation about a wider US attack on Venezuela [5]. 3.3 Outlook - Geopolitical concerns continue to weaken, and the implementation of subsequent sanctions on Russia remains to be seen. The short - term oil price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 435 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The spot prices of various crude oil varieties showed mixed trends. The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.63% to $63.54, while the price of WTI decreased by 0.43% to $59.43 [9]. - Inventory Data: The Cushing inventory decreased by 698,000 barrels to 21.821 million barrels as of November 14. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels to 424.155 million barrels on the same date [11][12]. 3.5持仓数据 - CFTC Fund Net Long Positions: As of the week of October 7, the number of speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures decreased by 28,991 contracts to 74,309 contracts [3][19]. - ICE Fund Net Long Positions: As of November 18, the number of speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased by 13,497 contracts to 178,364 contracts [3][20].