大越期货原油早报-20251124

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Geopolitical concerns have eased, leading to continued weakness in oil prices. However, the increasing probability of the US launching military action against Venezuela provides potential support for oil prices. In the short term, oil prices are expected to oscillate at low levels, waiting for more geopolitical news. SC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 443 - 453, and long - term investors should remain on the sidelines. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The US is preparing to initiate a new phase of Venezuela - related actions, and the US and Ukraine are making progress in cease - fire negotiations but have not reached a consensus on key issues. The overall situation is neutral. [3] - Basis: On November 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $62.98 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.06 per barrel. The basis was 26.20 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. [3] - Inventory: The API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels in the week ending November 14, more than the expected decrease of 0.603 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 69,800 barrels in the week ending November 14. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of November 20, which is bullish. [3] - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. [3] - Main Position: As of October 7, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts decreased; as of November 18, the long positions of Brent crude oil main contracts increased, which is bullish. [3] 3.2 Recent News - US - Ukraine Negotiations: US and Ukrainian senior officials said they had made substantial progress in bridging differences. However, Trump's criticism on social media complicated the negotiation prospects. Zelensky thanked Trump but said more work was needed to reach a final agreement. [5] - Economic Outlook: US Treasury Secretary Besent is optimistic about the economic growth in 2026. The economic effects of the Republican's large - scale expenditure plan, the "One Big, Beautiful Bill Act", have not fully manifested. Healthcare costs are expected to become more affordable, but some economic sectors, such as housing, are struggling. [5] - Internal Resistance: US Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker publicly questioned Trump's Ukraine peace plan, indicating significant resistance within the Republican Party. [5] 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Sanctions against Russia are approaching, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. [6] - Bearish Factors: The Middle East situation has eased, institutions generally expect an oil surplus, and there is a possibility of a meeting and negotiation between the US and Russia. [6] - Market Drivers: Short - term bearish impacts have subsided, geopolitical bullish factors are not obvious, and there is a long - term risk of oversupply. [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $64.89 to $63.51, a decline of 2.13%; WTI crude oil decreased from $60.67 to $59.25, a decline of 2.34%; SC crude oil increased from 462.3 to 463.2, an increase of 0.19%; Oman crude oil increased from $64.51 to $64.75, an increase of 0.37%. [7] - Spot Market: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.13%, WTI decreased by 2.14%, Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by 0.43%, Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by 0.74%, and Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by 0.48%. [9] - Inventory Data: The API inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels in the week ending November 14. [3][10][13] 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of October 7, the net long position decreased. The net long position on October 7 was 74,309, a decrease of 28,991 compared to the previous period. [17] - Brent Crude Oil: As of November 18, the net long position increased. The net long position on November 18 was 178,364, an increase of 13,497 compared to the previous period. [19]