大越期货沥青期货早报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of the domestic petroleum asphalt sample this week was 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. The refinery reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but the supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - The demand - side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point [8]. - The cost - side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With crude oil prices weakening, it is expected that the short - term support will weaken [8]. - The basis: On November 21st, the spot price in Shandong was 3,030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 21 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - The inventory: The social inventory was 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; the in - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and in - plant inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to increase [8]. - The market: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The main positions were net short, and short positions increased. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate between 2,984 - 3,034 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Likely positive factors: Relatively high crude oil costs provide some support [10]. - Likely negative factors: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - Main logic: Supply pressure remains high; demand recovery is weak [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts and related indicators showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of the 01 contract decreased from 3,058 to 3,009, a decrease of 1.60%; the social inventory was 794,000 tons, a decrease of 3.76% compared with the previous value [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis trend: Provided the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - Spread analysis - Main contract spread: Showed the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: Presented the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - Crude oil cracking spread: Displayed the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend: Showed the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - Regional market price trends: The report provided the historical price trend chart of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis - Asphalt profit: Showed the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [37][38]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: Presented the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][42]. - Supply - side analysis - Shipment volume: The report showed the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: Provided the historical inventory trend of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - Output: Included the weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend: Showed the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [53][55]. - Local refinery asphalt output: Presented the historical output trend of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - Capacity utilization rate: Showed the historical weekly capacity utilization rate trend of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - Estimated maintenance loss volume: Provided the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [62][63]. - Inventory analysis - Exchange warehouse receipts: Showed the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][67]. - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: Presented the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - In - plant inventory - inventory ratio: Showed the historical in - plant inventory - inventory ratio trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [72][73]. - Import and export situation: Provided the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][79]. - Demand - side analysis - Petroleum coke output: The report showed the historical output trend of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - Apparent consumption: Presented the historical apparent consumption trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - Downstream demand: Included the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, and the historical monthly operating hours trend of excavators from 2020 to 2025 [87][88][89]. - Asphalt开工率: Showed the historical开工率 trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, and asphalt by use from 2019 to 2025 [96][97][99]. - Downstream开工 situation: Presented the historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Provided the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to November 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, in - plant inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [105][106].