棉花周报（11.17-11.21）-20251124

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton prices continued to fluctuate around 13,500 this week. With cost support from the spot market, the downside is limited. It presents an opportunity for mid - to long - term long positions to enter the market at low prices and target distant contracts [4][5]. - The textile industry is in the off - season, but short - term benefits from China - US negotiations have led to a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include a slight increase in seed cotton purchase prices, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US. Negative factors are a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and the traditional consumption off - season [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices fluctuated around 13,500. The ICAC November report forecasts a 2025/26 production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons. The USDA November report predicts a 2025/26 production of 26.145 million tons, consumption of 25.883 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.532 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.262 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. China imported 90,000 tons of cotton in October, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and 140,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. The Ministry of Agriculture's November 2025/26 forecast shows production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.45 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Hints - The textile industry is in the off - season. Short - term benefits from China - US negotiations have led to a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US. Domestic new cotton picking is almost finished. With cost support, the downside of futures prices is limited, and it's a good time for mid - to long - term long positions to enter the market at low prices and target distant contracts [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus Not provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In 2025/26, global production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, consumption 25.883 million tons, and ending inventory 16.532 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, and exports [11][12]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In 2025/26, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, yield per hectare is 835.13 kg, production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [14]. - China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In 2025/26, production is 6.6 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.45 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [15]. - Other Data: There are also data on polyester fiber prices, spinning mill profits, cotton yarn imports, cotton yarn production start - up rates, and weaving mill start - up rates [18][20][25]. 3.5 Position Data Not provided in the report.