大越期货燃料油周报-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil showed a first-rising-then-falling trend, and fuel oil prices followed the downward trend. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil remained stable, while that of high-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,038 yuan/ton, down 6.23% for the week [4]. - The estimated arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 billion tons, higher than 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons in October. However, high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. Affected by the expected supply tightening, the price of low-sulfur marine fuel oil has gradually risen, and the spot spread has changed from a discount to a premium. But due to sufficient immediate supply, there is limited room for the low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals to rise significantly in the short term [4]. - The Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market has been strongly supported by the downstream marine fuel demand. Some Chinese refineries are purchasing high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials, and the demand in the Chinese market remains relatively stable. International crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and fuel oil prices are also expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Operationally, high-sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and low-sulfur fuel oil in the range of 2,950 - 3,150 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Weekly View - Crude oil showed a first-rising-then-falling trend last week, and fuel oil prices followed the downward trend. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil remained stable, and that of high-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,038 yuan/ton, down 6.23% for the week [4]. - The estimated arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 billion tons, higher than 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons in October. High freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. Affected by the expected supply tightening, the price of low-sulfur marine fuel oil has gradually risen, and the spot spread has changed from a discount to a premium. But due to sufficient immediate supply, there is limited room for the low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals to rise significantly in the short term [4]. - The Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market has been strongly supported by the downstream marine fuel demand. Some Chinese refineries are purchasing high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials, and the demand in the Chinese market remains relatively stable. International crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and fuel oil prices are also expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Operationally, high-sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and low-sulfur fuel oil in the range of 2,950 - 3,150 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: The previous value of the FU main contract was 2,655 yuan/ton, the current value is 2,546 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton or 4.10%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 3,255 yuan/ton, the current value is 3,207 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or 1.49% [5]. - Spot Prices: The previous value of Zhoushan high-sulfur fuel oil was 456 yuan/ton, the current value is 445 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 2.41%. The previous value of Zhoushan low-sulfur fuel oil was 465 yuan/ton, the current value is 455 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 2.15%. The previous value of Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil was 345.51 yuan/ton, the current value is 341.53 yuan/ton, down 3.98 yuan/ton or 1.15%. The previous value of Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil was 441.50 yuan/ton, the current value is 426.35 yuan/ton, down 15.15 yuan/ton or 3.43%. The previous value of Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil was 314.22 yuan/ton, the current value is 310.98 yuan/ton, down 3.24 yuan/ton or 1.03%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 711.50 yuan/ton, the current value is 696.05 yuan/ton, down 15.44 yuan/ton or 2.17% [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Consumption Data: Data on Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins are presented in the form of charts, showing the consumption and profit margin trends from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][9]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory: As of November 19, the inventory was 23.449 billion barrels, an increase of 2.57 billion barrels [10]. 3.5 Spread Data - The chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread shows the spread trend [15].