大越期货白糖周报-20251124

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices in China started a catch - up decline, with spot prices dropping significantly due to the impact of imported sugar. The full - tariff price of imported sugar is around 5100 - 5200, and there is still room for the futures price to fall. After a rapid decline, there may be a rebound. It's advisable to be cautiously bearish, avoid chasing short positions, and consider reducing profitable short positions taken earlier [5]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, with estimates ranging from 100,000 to 740,000 tons [5]. - The external sugar market is weak, and the profit margin for out - of - quota imported sugar is large, leading to a significant increase in imports in October. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 01 has recently caught up with the decline and reached a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, a technical rebound is possible, and short - term short positions can be partially reduced for profit [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production and the expected supply surplus in the new season, as well as the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of external sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Prompt - For SR2601, the price is 5353, the basis is 317, the import price difference is - 246, and the state reserve inventory is about 7 million tons. For SR2605, the price is 5302, with a change of - 60, the import price after processing of raw sugar (50% tariff) is 5107, the basis is 368, the import price difference is - 195, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons. For SR2609, the price in Liuzhou is 5321, the basis is 349, and the import price difference is - 214. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [8]. - Mid - term view: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, but the gap is decreasing in the medium - to - long - term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5700. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. The long - term view is bullish on sugar due to the approval of the cola formula change [8]. - Short - term view: Bullish on sugar. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global sugar supply and demand forecasts for the 25/26 season from different institutions: ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 277,000 tons; Czarnikow has raised the surplus forecast to 740,000 tons; DATAGRO has revised the surplus forecast down from 280,000 to 100,000 tons [5][8]. - As of the end of August 2025, in the 24/25 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 1.11621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [5][8]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet: In the 25/26 season (November forecast), the sugarcane planting area is 1.439 million hectares, the sugar production is 1.17 million tons, the import volume is 500,000 tons, the consumption is 1.57 million tons, and the export volume is 18,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.