芳烃橡胶早报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, with some proximal TA devices under maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester load increased, inventory was depleted, basis strengthened slightly, and spot processing fees improved. PX domestic start - up increased, overseas devices reduced load, PXN strengthened, and cost - end PX had a good pattern. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of positive spreads at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. - For MEG, with domestic oil - based production increasing load and coal - based production having some maintenance and load reduction, overall start - up declined. With supply load reduction and high polyester start - up, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. There are opportunities for short - term selling of put options, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high export growth, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term as the downstream enters the off - season and new devices are about to be put into production. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, with stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump rubber prices affected by rainfall, the strategy is to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Changes: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 0.8, PTA spot price decreased by 15, and PTA processing fee increased by 41. The average daily trading basis for PTA was 2601(-61) [2]. - Device Changes: Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million - ton device and Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device were under maintenance [2]. - Market Outlook: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, downstream has no obvious pressure, and with India revoking the BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope is not high. There are opportunities for positive spreads at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 3, the inner - market price decreased by 33, and the coal - based MEG profit decreased by 47.08 [2]. - Device Changes: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device and Huayi's 200,000 - ton device were under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarted [2]. - Market Outlook: With supply load reduction and high polyester start - up, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. There are short - term opportunities for selling put options, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 30, and the short - fiber profit decreased by 7 [2]. - Device Operation: The start - up rate was stable at 97.5%, production and sales improved slightly, and inventory was basically flat [2]. - Market Outlook: Short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high export growth, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term as the downstream enters the off - season and new devices are about to be put into production. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 5, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 10 [5]. - Market Outlook: With stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump rubber prices affected by rainfall, the strategy is to wait and see [5]. Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 8 [8]. - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene remained at 45, and the domestic profits of EPS, PS, and ABS remained unchanged [8].