LPG早报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the investment rating of the LPG industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The PG futures price has declined, with the basis at -43 (-57) and the 01 - 02 spread at 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices have fallen, the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49), and the propane - civil LPG price difference has narrowed. Warehouse receipts are 4561 lots (-54). Off - market paper prices have declined while the spread has strengthened, and the ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas has changed little. The domestic chemical sector is relatively strong and civil demand is increasing, but there is expected to be a large amount of arrivals in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but the market may tend to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches. Weather and oil prices also need attention [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data 3.1 Daily Changes (2025/11/21 compared to previous day) - Civil LPG: East China 4315 (-10), Shandong 4340 (-20), South China 4550 (+200). Ether - after carbon four 4530 (-40). The lowest delivery location is East China, with a basis of -43 (+0) and a 01 - 02 spread of 109. FEI is 491 (-10) and CP is 485 (-1) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Data and Changes - PG futures: Basis -43 (-57), 01 - 02 spread 109 (-19) [1] - Domestic civil LPG: The price has fallen, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49) [1] - Warehouse receipts: 4561 lots (-54) [1] - Off - market paper: Prices have fallen, and the spread has strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas has changed little. PG - CP is 126 (-2); PG - FEI is 114 (+3). East China arrival, North American and AFEI offshore discounts are flat, and Middle Eastern goods are in short supply with a discount of 35 US dollars (+13). Freight has slightly declined. The FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed to -55 (+11) [1] - Profits and Operating Rates: Shandong PDH - to - propylene profit has slightly recovered; alkylation unit profit has slightly recovered but is still poor; MTBE production profit is volatile and export profit is still good. PDH operating rate is 69.64% (-2.1), and Dongguan Juzhengyuan PDH Phase II is expected to restart next week [1] - Inventory: Arrivals have increased, external sales have decreased, factory warehouses have slightly accumulated, and port inventories have increased [1]