农产品早报-20251124

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term due to low supply and downstream restocking demand, and may start a new upward cycle after the release of farmers' selling pressure in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Starch prices are under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, and downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor for price trends in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - For sugar, maintain a high - short strategy as the global and domestic sugar supply is loose, but the short - term downward space is limited [7]. - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as the new cotton acquisition is almost completed, the estimated total output is lowered, and the external environment is favorable for textile exports [10]. - Egg prices are pushed up slightly by supply and demand factors, and the acceleration of the culling rhythm will drive prices up [13]. - Apple prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term as the national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year and good - quality goods are scarce [16]. - For pigs, there are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival, but the supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to the far - month market sentiment improvement and various influencing factors [18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price and Index Changes: From November 17 - 21, the price in Changchun remained unchanged, while the price in Weifang increased by 20 yuan, and the price in Shekou increased by 10 yuan. The basis of corn changed by - 27, and the trade profit increased by 10. For starch, the price in Weifang increased by 50 yuan, and the basis changed by - 39 [3]. - Market Analysis: In the short - term, the corn market is short of supply, and prices are strong. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is tight, and planting costs support prices. Starch prices are under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, and downstream consumption is the key in the long - term [4]. Sugar - Price and Index Changes: From November 17 - 21, the price in Kunming increased by 5 yuan, and the Zhengzhou futures price decreased by 11. The basis in Liuzhou was 322, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil was 410 and 591 respectively on November 21 [7]. - Market Analysis: In the short - term, domestic sugar prices are supported by domestic production costs. In the long - term, if the global sugar surplus intensifies, domestic production costs may be broken through. Maintain a high - short strategy [7]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price and Index Changes: From November 17 - 21, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5 yuan, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 1185. The price of Vietnamese yarn remained unchanged, and the import profit increased by 4, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 1 [10]. - Market Analysis: New cotton acquisition is almost done, and the estimated output is lowered. The external environment is favorable for textile exports, so it is suitable for long - term long positions [10]. Eggs - Price and Index Changes: From November 17 - 21, the prices in various production areas remained unchanged, and the basis remained unchanged. The price of live pigs decreased by 0.03 [13]. - Market Analysis: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand increases. The price center of production areas moves up slightly. Pay attention to the culling rhythm [13]. Apples - Price and Index Changes: From November 17 - 20, the prices of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade and Shaanxi 70 general - grade apples remained unchanged. The national inventory increased by 56, Shandong inventory increased by 101, and Shaanxi inventory increased by 67 [15][16]. - Market Analysis: The national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. Good - quality goods are scarce, and prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [16]. Pigs - Price and Index Changes: From November 17 - 21, the price in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.05, and the price in Anhui Hefei decreased by 0.05. The basis increased by 40 [17]. - Market Analysis: Before the Spring Festival, there are expectations of both supply and demand increase, but the supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to far - month market sentiment and various influencing factors [18].