原油成品油早报-20251124

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices closed lower. There has been significant progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with Zelensky and Trump set to discuss a peace plan next week. Russia is open to it, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US. The risk premium of gasoline and diesel cracks in Europe and the US has rapidly reversed, and the crude oil monthly spread has declined, with a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased this week, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching a new high since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of US drilling rigs and fracturing operations has risen, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have increased. Recently, there is still room for downward correction in US gasoline and European diesel prices. With supply exceeding demand, a short-selling strategy for crude oil is maintained. The Brent price is expected to range from $55 to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Short-term attention should be paid to the Russia-Ukraine conflict plan drafted by the US [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Data - From November 17 - 21, 2025, WTI dropped from $59.91 to $58.06, a decrease of $0.94; BRENT fell from $64.20 to $62.56, a decline of $0.82; DUBAI decreased from $65.00 to $64.39, a drop of $0.28. SC decreased by 8.10, and domestic gasoline decreased by 30.00. Other related oil products also showed various price changes [3] 2. Daily News - Trump set a deadline for Ukraine to accept a new peace plan, and Zelensky and Trump will discuss the peace plan next week. Peskov said that Russia and the US have not conducted any substantial discussions on the peace plan, and Ukraine must make a responsible decision on resolving the conflict peacefully [3][4] - The IEA reported that the global energy efficiency improvement pace has accelerated in 2025. The global primary energy intensity is expected to improve by 1.8% this year, up from 1% in 2024 [4] 3. Inventory - In the week of November 14, US crude oil exports increased by 1.342 million barrels per day to 4.158 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 28,000 barrels to 13.834 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.426 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.8% [5] - From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories were 10.2331 million tons, a decline of 1.75%; diesel inventories were 12.2708 million tons, a decline of 4.25%. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, while that of local refineries fluctuated [6] 4. EIA Report Additional Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.641 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the same period last year [14] - In the week of November 14, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 533,000 barrels to 410.9 million barrels, an increase of 0.13% [14] - In the week of November 14, the US imported 5.95 million barrels per day of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves, an increase of 728,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [14]