永安期货有色早报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices fluctuated slightly this week, with downstream consumption remaining weak. The negotiation of long - term contracts between copper producers and downstream consumers is ongoing, and the price around 85,000 yuan may be a psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1][2]. - Zinc prices oscillated this week. The domestic fundamentals are poor, but there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year, so it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, and there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies due to policy - induced price support motives [5]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak, and there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies due to policy - induced price support motives [8]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate narrowly next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the increase in warehouse receipts and the price support of waste batteries [11][12]. - Tin prices' short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [15]. - Industrial silicon's supply - demand is expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state in Q4, and prices are expected to oscillate [18]. - The price of lithium carbonate has high price elasticity after supply - side disturbances, and the turning point of the long - term pattern may occur in the next 1 - 2 years [20]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price Trend: Copper prices first rose and then declined slightly this week [1]. - Supply and Demand: Downstream consumption is weak, and the negotiation of long - term contracts is ongoing. LME copper had concentrated warehousing this week, and the scrap - refined copper price difference has widened [1]. - Outlook: The price around 85,000 yuan may be a psychological price for downstream point - pricing, and attention should be paid to industrial support at this level [1]. Aluminum - Price Trend: Aluminum prices declined this week, and the position decreased [1]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic and overseas production capacity is gradually being put into operation. The inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods and strips decreased slightly. Downstream consumption is acceptable, and the acceptance of high prices has increased [1][2]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [2]. Zinc - Price Trend: Zinc prices oscillated this week [4]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of domestic and imported TC is accelerating to decline. The production of Huoshaoyun zinc ingots has started, and most smelters will have maintenance in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. Domestic social inventory oscillates, and overseas LME inventory decreases [4]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading in the short term. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [4]. Nickel - Price Trend: Nickel prices declined this week [5]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand is weak, and domestic and overseas inventories are increasing [5]. - Strategy: Pay attention to opportunities for short - selling on rallies due to policy - induced price support motives [5]. Stainless Steel - Price Trend: Stainless steel prices remained stable this week [8]. - Supply and Demand: Steel mill production increased slightly in October, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory remains at a high level [8]. - Strategy: Pay attention to opportunities for short - selling on rallies due to policy - induced price support motives [8]. Lead - Price Trend: Lead prices declined this week [11]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is loose, demand is expected to weaken, and social inventory is increasing. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated [11][12]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate narrowly next week in the range of 17,100 - 17,400 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. Tin - Price Trend: Tin prices rose this week [15]. - Supply and Demand: The supply has marginally recovered, overseas production has uncertainties, and demand is mainly rigid [15]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term; in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [15]. Industrial Silicon - Price Trend: Not mentioned explicitly [18]. - Supply and Demand: The supply - demand is expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state in Q4, with some production capacity changes in different regions [18]. - Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Trend: The price first rose and then fell sharply [20]. - Supply and Demand: The raw material supply is tight, the upstream inventory has decreased, the downstream inventory is relatively sufficient, and the transaction is冷清 [20]. - Outlook: The price has high price elasticity after supply - side disturbances, and the turning point of the long - term pattern may occur in the next 1 - 2 years [20].