氯碱周报：SH：下游需求较弱，价格难言乐观，V：供需仍处过剩格局，价格趋弱运行-20251124

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views PVC - This week, the PVC spot market continued to be weak. Next week, the supply - side operating rate will increase, while the demand side remains sluggish. Considering the traditional demand off - season from November to January and the expected implementation of anti - dumping duties in India, the overall demand has weak support for PVC. The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is hard to be optimistic. It is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern. Futures should be treated with a rebound - shorting approach, and options should be on the sidelines [3]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. Next week, the regional supply in East China will decline, and with the monthly contract signing, if the futures market continues to weaken, the spot price in East China is expected to decline. The Shandong market is unclear, and it is necessary to track the unloading situation of major downstream industries and the trend of liquid chlorine. The main downstream, alumina, continues to accumulate inventory, and its price is weakening, with weak price transmission to caustic soda. Overall, the demand side has weak support, and in the long - term, there are still supply - demand pressures. The caustic soda price is expected to run weakly. Futures should be considered with a short - bias, and options should be temporarily on the sidelines [4]. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda Price and Market Analysis - The caustic soda futures price has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand adjustments, and cost fluctuations. For example, the 8 - month contract repaired the basis, and the futures market accelerated its decline; the market was worried about the weakening of the marginal supply after the subsequent supply recovery, and the downstream demand was stable. The far - month supply - demand expectation was poor, and the futures price was seeking the bottom due to factors like cost reduction, new capacity launch, and insufficient support from alumina in the medium - term [7]. Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 90.29%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from last week's 89.79%. In Shandong, the operating rate was 91.44%, a 3.41% increase from the previous period. There were multiple caustic soda plant maintenance situations this week, with a total maintenance loss of 3.22 tons. There are also planned maintenance schedules in the future [26][27]. Demand - Alumina is expected to have many new capacity launches in the first quarter of next year and may start stockpiling in the fourth quarter. From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new capacity of alumina is 1230 tons (including 200 tons of replacement), with an estimated annual capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 8800 tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 80 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 15 tons from April to June [31]. Export - In October, the caustic soda export weakened, and the estimated export profit declined [57]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Price and Market Analysis - The PVC futures price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand changes, macro - environment, and policy expectations. The core contradiction in the PVC spot market is that the supply - demand has not been substantially improved, and the spot price has continued to weaken [64][65]. Supply - This week, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry decreased. There were 2 new sets of planned maintenance, and the overall maintenance loss increased. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 77.48%, a 0.77 - percentage - point increase from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 80.15%, a 0.58 - percentage - point increase, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 71.31%, a 1.18 - percentage - point increase [86]. Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, and the demand from the real estate end has a negative impact on PVC. According to the Xuande sample data, downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels, so there is no positive driving force for PVC downstream [94]. Inventory - PVC inventory has slightly decreased, but the total inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [102]. Export - In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 31.21 tons, with an average export price of 605 US dollars per ton. The cumulative export from January to October was 323.38 tons. The single - month export decreased by 9.91% month - on - month, increased by 34.28% year - on - year, and the cumulative export increased by 48.88% year - on - year. The import volume in October was 1.09 tons, with an average import price of 725 US dollars per ton. The cumulative import from January to October was 18.64 tons. The single - month import decreased by 24.14% month - on - month, increased by 20.66% year - on - year, and the cumulative import increased by 1.74% year - on - year [120].